Apolitical Staples

http://www.thestar.com/News/article/187204

The greens are starting to eat into both the Liberal and NDP support. Maybe voters are listening to Jamie Heath’s proposition that “progressive” voters should stop supporting the Liberals … just not exactly the way he hoped.

Socialist Greg awaits the next SES poll.

“Socialist Greg awaits the next SES poll.”

That, my friends, was a pre-emptive Greging. And a funny one at that.

March is a big month. The budget will impact thinking about the fiscal imbalance which will impact the Quebec election. Depending on the hopeful marginilization of the PQ and the growth of the right wing ADQ we could then see the stars lining up for enough conservative seats in Quebec to call an election.

However, it is way too early to speculate on the Quebec shakeout. But as always, our future depends heavily on the 22% population in Quebec.

Socialist Greg awaits the next SES poll.

Hey, get your own line! ;)

…The numbers suggest the prime minister and his party are succeeding in convincing women, urban and Ontario voters that the Tories are a moderate rather than hard-right government, Decima CEO Bruce Anderson said.

Harper will shatter that illusion within days of getting a “majority” government if, God forbid, that ever happens. However, I should point out that the CPC got 36% in the last election, so their growth has been zero. I am not as sure as capitalist Greg that I would go to the people with those numbers.

Maybe voters are listening to Jamie Heath’s proposition that “progressive” voters should stop supporting the Liberals…

Yayaya: Like anyone listens to Jamey Heath?? However, since his summation and thesis pertain to not voting Liberal, who can argue, the guys dead on or should I say “Dead Centre”.lol

CROP’s larger Quebec sampling has been showing us consistently around 22-23% in QC, not 15%. And I get the feeling that the ON jump is good to be true.

Bruce Anderson saying that we’re not scaring women and children anymore makes for a good-new s day, though.

now that comment that greg refered to as “apples and oranges” makes sense.

internal numbers are showing that Harper is indeed making inroads with women- why else would Dion pull the “we are the party of childcare”???

I’d take lesser results than this, if only it would stop Scott Tribe’s incessant carping that Dion’s salvation lies just around the next corner. And that the CPC’s strategies just aren’t working. In our towns. In our cities. And, no, I don’t know the exact name of the serious brain disease he has contracted.

Forgot to add this. Did you read Princess Steffi’s non-rebuttal to Jonathon Kay’s National Post piece that is absolutely driving LibBloggers mind-numbing crazy?

My take is here:

http://www.thiscanada.com/2007/03/01/clear-as-say-kyoto/

Enjoy.

“However, I should point out that the CPC got 36% in the last election, so their growth has been zero. I am not as sure as capitalist Greg that I would go to the people with those numbers. “

Party support is around the same but Harper’s personal numbers are way better then they were last time around.

Party support is around the same but Harper’s personal numbers are way better then they were last time around.

My guess is when the SES comes out, the two bigs will be tied and the Greens will be back to their traditional level.

This was done before the anti-terrorist vote, expect other polls to show an even bigger gap. People are seeing a government that gets the things they want done, done. Dion and the Liberals are done like dinner.

Have you seen the Angus Reid Poll yet?

No Jason, but that seems about right. Although I suspect it is closer to 34, 34 , 17, 6.

Duffy was openly asking journalists today on ‘problems with Dion’; on how, possibly, the Liberals might be regretting that they ‘chose’ him; on how Dion isn’t doing well with the voters. And, he showed a clip of Dion in question period. Totally, massively, incomprehensible.

The thing about Dion, is that he is not only incomprehensible in English; it’s a deeper problem. He is someone isolated within the world of words. He has no connection to actions.

He has flung himself into Kyotoism, not because he has any action plan to deal with the environment, and not because he even cares about the environment. He has done so, only to manipulate the electorate, with words.

He’s trying to repaint the Liberal party from a corrupt image to a ‘pure’ image. He’s trying to bond the image of a pure environment to the Liberals, trying to whitewash the Liberal image of corruption.

He rejected the security measures, not because he’s interested in civil rights; he must know that clause doesn’t harm the public. But, he wants to ‘imagize’ the Liberal Party as ‘all about justice’.

Dion’s focus on words and symbols, and his indifference to actions, is a serious flaw. So, it isn’t simply that he can’t speak English; that any European politician speaks better English than Dion. It’s deeper; it’s the fact that his world is confined to the realm of words; he never moves outside of that isolate cerebral realm.

Also Jason, that poll is a bit stale.

First week of May, or thereabouts, is when the election will take place.

Spring flowers, birds chirping, children frolicking in the park, Canadians secure in the notion that Harper is at the healm of our successful economy (not one to engage in social science experiments with our lives, like Dion seems to be), and serious about our security and our safety (the most fundamental duties of any leader).

Canadians will know that while activists have their place in society, influencing reform from the sidelines, they do not belong at the healm. Activists may influence, but they have no place deciding.

They will know that given world wide threats and our military committments overseas, we require a man of action, not one of mere words.

They will want someone more like them, who has a family, drives their kids to hockey, follows the Leafs, not because of mere sentimentality, but because Canadians are tired of out-of-touch leaders raised in Ivory Towers (or by French handmaidens) who’s only connection to the common person comes from a description in a textbook, or a political advisors’ manual.

They will want someone who doesn’t profess the ability to save the world or offer utopic visions of a perfect Canada. They will want someone who will try their best to make our lives somewhat better, and being honest in his assessment of how he will do it.

In short, they will want Steven Harper.

So come this election, Canadians will elect Harper into a majority government.

God bless Canada, and have a wonderful evening.

Chester.

I don’t want people you’re talking about, Chester, but the absolute best interpretation for the Conservatives with these numbers is that they’re exactly where they were in the last election - except that they’re now behind the Liberals in Quebec.

That means no majority, not even close to one. Period.

They will want someone more like them…

I don’t think Canadians in general feel they have a lot in common with any politician.

…who has a family…

Dion doesn’t have a family now?

…drives their kids to hockey…

Given that Dion’s daughter is 18, she can probably drive herself to hockey, if she’s so inclined.

…follows the Leafs…

The only universal feeling about the Leafs among Canadians outside of that hotbed of Tory support - Toronto - is schadenfreude.

…not because of mere sentimentality, but because Canadians are tired of out-of-touch leaders raised in Ivory Towers (or by French handmaidens) who’s only connection to the common person comes from a description in a textbook, or a political advisors’ manual.

Who are these “common people” you speak of? Harper’s professional career has been spent either as the head of right-wing advocacy group - founded to oppose Medicare, by the way - or in politics. Step outside the echo chamber once in a while - you might find that politicians of all stripes are held in low esteem, and that however “prime ministerial” Harper looks, the CPC has been stuck where it was in January 2006 or somewhat below.

We do not need another election right now, and Harper and co. should get on with the business of governing rather than taking every opportunity to snipe at the opposition, all the while scheming to win that fabled majority. (and for the record, I don’t want any party to have a majority, particularly when there isn’t a chance in hell that a single party is going to win a majority of votes - we need electoral reform… now)

josh - I think that, since we are referring to a comparative poll, than, comparative ratios are important.

Though the Conservatives may be at about the same percentage as when they won the 2006 election, the comparative ratio is not the same. The Liberals, the main ‘other’ federal party, have not gained, despite having a new leader, despite flinging themselves into Kyotoism and trying to whitewash themselves - and any gains they had during the Liberal leadership convention, which they took not from the CPC but from the NDP have dropped away.

The NDP are in trouble, for they haven’t regained what they had lost to the Liberals but have instead, lost it to the Greens. The Greens, of course, haven’t a chance during an election; they are a ‘cult-park’, something like a summer day-at-the-beach. You still have to return to work tomorrow - and will that vote go to the NDP or the Liberals? I suspect it won’t go to the Liberals.

Importantly, in Ontario, the proportions have flipped. The CPC are now ahead by 8 points over the Liberals. That’s quite a shift; Ontario has been brainwashed Liberal for a generation, glued to its centralist bond with Quebec. Is it finally emerging from its enslavement?

And in Quebec, the proportions have also changed. The Bloc is steadily dropping, from 50 to 35; and, the Liberals are gradually dropping and the CPC are gradually moving up.

So, it’s the relations that count.

As for your other comments - that ‘Canadians don’t feel they have a lot in common with any politician’ - well, that’s your opinion. I disagree.

Medicare? I’m certainly opposed to the Canadian health care system. I don’t think it’s right or left wing to oppose an expensive, bureaucratically overloaded and inadequate system. I think it’s pure good business sense to oppose such.

I don’t think that Harper (what’s with your ‘and co’???) take every opportunity to ‘snipe at the opposition’. They have done more, in the year they have been in power than the Liberals did in their 13 years - and any sniping you hear in QP is a reaction to the constant, endless sniping carried out by Dion and Layton in particular. Dion’s first words, on becoming leader, were to name-call Harper as ‘a control-freak’, a ‘right wing’ etc.

Who is the control-freak? Dion with his 3 whipped vote, his threat of ‘consequences’ against any who don’t obey him as The Master.

I repeat. Dion is trapped within words; he’s not a man of action; he doesn’t know how to (and doesn’t care to) transform words into actions, into practical policies. Harper, on the other hand, does just that - actions. Quite the difference.

You certainly draw a lot of wild conclusions from one poll where all the numbers are within the margin of error of where they were in the last election. Otherwise, none of the changes at the provincial level can be considered remotely statistically significant - when you see big swings in the regional numbers, you are seeing lots of background noise and sample bias here and there.

As for your other comments - that ‘Canadians don’t feel they have a lot in common with any politician’ - well, that’s your opinion. I disagree.

Hahaha - who’s out of touch here?

Medicare? I’m certainly opposed to the Canadian health care system. I don’t think it’s right or left wing to oppose an expensive, bureaucratically overloaded and inadequate system. I think it’s pure good business sense to oppose such

There’s nothing bureaucratically overloaded about the system at all - it’s just insurance, which happens to avoid most of the overhead caused by the employment of actuaries since there is no need for elaborate claims adjustment or investigation. It’s really quite cheap, and costs two-thirds what the American system does.

Single-payer insurance is the cheapest way of pooling risk around, particularly since you’re able to maximize the amount of risk pooled. Far from “good business sense”, your position relies on entirely ignorant assumptions and misinformation about how the system actually works. But that’s a digression for another day.

josh - I don’t think that the poll relations fall within the margin of error. The relations are different - and that’s important.

You may wish to denigrate the flip in Ontario between the CPC and the Liberals, with the CPC now well ahead of the Liberals, but - I think that it IS statistically significant. Equally, I think that the Quebec Bloc ratios are statistically significant.

You can’t assume that changes in numbers can be reduced to irrelevance by defining them as only ‘sample bias’ and ‘background noise’. You are attempting, very hard, to reject the results of the polls. OK - that’s your choice. That doesn’t make it a valid conclusion.

Your reaction of laughter to my disagreement to you - and your sneering comment ‘who’s out of touch’ is irrelevant. I think you are out of touch; you think I am. So?

I also disagree with your assessment of our health care system - I think the exact opposite and don’t agree with you that it is cheaper than the US system.

I don’t think that our health care system is ‘single-payer’; it’s not comparable to an insurance system. And I’m not as ignorant as you try to claim - even though you might be trying to bolster your conclusion with such a claim.

It is interesting, but I provided no outline of how I think the system works - and yet you chose to chastize me for my ignorance on ‘how the system works’. Interesting. Is that how you deal with all arguments? Make false claims about what your opponents said? Hmm.

A random thought…

I’ve been pretty ambivalent about election timing over the last few months, mainly because I think that a Harper/Dion campaign is a good thing for the CPC be it now or next year. Elections are funny things, and no one should count their chickens, but I think that when Harper debates Dion on english-language TV, his biggest problem is going to be not beating Dion up so badly that he looks like a bully.

That said, I think it might be go time. The media seem to be turning on Dion at a rapidly accelerating rate; this may well be beacuse they have decided that he can’t beat Harper, and the only chance of stopping a CPC majority is to get rid of Dion before the election. If the hang-Dion-out-to-dry campaign seems to be gaining traction in the media over the next week or so, it’s time for Harper to pull the plug; he shouldn’t risk losing the guy who has been his biggest asset since he took over the Liberal leadership.

The media seem to be turning on Dion at a rapidly accelerating rate.

Hate to be cynical but the media would love an election. It’s exciting and it sells eyeballs to sponsors.

Mr.Gould,

meet Mr. Reid.

Angus Reid.

Thank you, thank you very much.

Conservatives on brink of majority at 40% support: poll
Article Tools Printer friendly E-mail Font: * * * * Jack Aubry, The Ottawa Citizen Published: Friday, March 02, 2007 Talk of a spring election heated up yesterday with the release of two polls showing the rising Conservatives have a significant lead over the Liberals — one suggesting they have enough for a majority.

Angus Reid Strategies surveyed 3,189 Canadians between Feb. 20 and 27 and found the Conservatives have the support of 40 per cent of voters, with two out of five decided voters indicating they’d cast ballots for them if an election were called tomorrow.

“There’s nothing bureaucratically overloaded about the system at all - it’s just insurance”

“It costs 2/3rds of what the US costs”

But Josh,

That’s what it ought to be …”just insurance”. Unfortunately it doesn’t stop there .. It’s “delivered” by government unions … . .it’s a duel monopoly.

Instead the Government should only insure, delivery should be privatized and it should be competitive delivery. Competition is the only method that will keep costs down. Plus competition creates innovation to add new technology and productivity into the Health system . .or any system for that matter.

The US Health costs are about 6% public, same as Canada. The difference is the US is not a fascist system that caps what I can buy privately, they are less rationed. Therefore they spend and additional 9% on private, whereas in Canada we only spend an additional 3% … but that 3% needs to dramatically rise with the baby boomers and it is about to take off in Québec if the Liberals and ADQ coalition takes shape. The other Provinces can compete with that Quebec model of delivery.

That’s an interesting point, pheenster - that the MSM, which are heavily Liberal, are turning against Dion because they fear a Conservative election victory with Dion as leader. They want the Liberal party to get rid of Dion. Interesting.

As for the election debates, if Dion is still leader, and I don’t think there is any way the Liberal Party can get rid of him at the moment - but, I’d bet the Liberals will do something to prevent Dion from taking part.

They are trying to have Elizabeth May on - Dion would act ‘as if’ she was saying exactly his position. Since she has no hope of taking seats, then, he’d be trying to bleed votes from the Green party, just as he’s trying to do the same with the NDP.

Or, they’ll insist on the debate format such that Dion will know all the topics before and will have prepared speeches. And, they’ll insist on no interaction between the candidates, ie, no free interaction or speech.

Or, they’ll send in Ignatieff in a Dion face mask.

Why was my post from last night held back, Greg?