That is even worse for the Liberals, from Angus Reid Strategies.
Conservatives: 40%
Liberals: 26%
New Democrats: 15%
Bloc Quebecois: 10%
Greens: 8%
« "Better than a Liberal" | Main | Indeed »
Here is another poll
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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on March 2, 2007 8:37 AM.
The previous post in this blog was "Better than a Liberal".
The next post in this blog is Indeed.
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Comments (16)
I bet this poll had Dion’s strategists crapping their pants.
I wonder if they think labeling Harper as a “Neo-Con/Right Wing/Republican/etc” is really going to do much anymore? Don’t they know people are getting tired of that?
Posted by Riley | March 2, 2007 8:44 AM
Posted on March 2, 2007 08:44
Socialist Greg still awaits the next SES numbers. (I’m reliably informed that he’s not even taking bathroom breaks, so fervent is his anticipation.)
Posted by Alan | March 2, 2007 8:46 AM
Posted on March 2, 2007 08:46
Socialist Greg will also point out that if you take out Alberta, the Liberals are “only” down by nine points. :)
Posted by The Invisible Hand | March 2, 2007 9:38 AM
Posted on March 2, 2007 09:38
Apparently, Dion is starting a tour of Canada where his main message will be that Harper is a neoconservative Republican wannabee.
There are two problems with this:
a) It contradicts the image people had of Dion when he won the leadership — that he’s a sincere “man of integrity.” Now, he just comes across as a same old Liberal.
b) He literally can’t talk properly, so he can’t sell his message like, say, Paul Martin tried to. And even he ultimately failed at it.
Mike Duffy showed a clip yesterday of Dion trying to read a question during question period. It was brutal.
Like Duffy said, if you can’t communicate in today’s 8-second sound bite world, you’re dead meat. Dion is starting to look like dead meat.
Posted by Dennis (Second Thoughts) | March 2, 2007 10:57 AM
Posted on March 2, 2007 10:57
Dennis, If these numbers are correct, then Dion slagging Harper has the added benefit of slagging the 40% who would choose the Tories.
I’m not sure about you, but I react in a non-happy way when I’m called a “neoconservative Republican wannabee”.
Cheers, lance
Posted by Lance | March 2, 2007 11:26 AM
Posted on March 2, 2007 11:26
How close were these guys to getting the numbers right in the last election again? Oh, right. Not at all. I’m telling you folks. You are going to look silly when SES comes out with its next poll. Mock me if you must, but no one mocks SES in my presence. ;P…
Posted by Greg | March 2, 2007 12:45 PM
Posted on March 2, 2007 12:45
I agree with Kinsella. Online polling is a joke.
Posted by Greg | March 2, 2007 1:41 PM
Posted on March 2, 2007 13:41
And phone polling, which misses all those people who don’t bother with having a traditional POTS phone line, or who ignores/won’t pick up calls from numbers they don’t know or telemarketers are any more accurate?
Posted by TorontoCrawler | March 2, 2007 1:58 PM
Posted on March 2, 2007 13:58
“Mock me if you must”
Clearly we must. You cry out for it.
“You are going to look silly when SES comes out with its next poll.”
Why? I never said this one was accurate. I think it’s crap. CPC is around 35-37%.
Posted by Alan | March 2, 2007 2:08 PM
Posted on March 2, 2007 14:08
It would be funny if the next SES poll had the CPC at 41%, but I suspect Alan might be right.
Posted by The Fog is Clearing | March 2, 2007 3:50 PM
Posted on March 2, 2007 15:50
Where are the big headlines in the Toronto Star, imagine the headlines if the Libs were in the lead.!
Posted by stephen Reeves | March 2, 2007 5:39 PM
Posted on March 2, 2007 17:39
For the record, SES is best. Angus Reid had my hopes up during the last election.
Conservatives in the US have maintained for years that telephone polls are inaccurate, especially for party preference. Election results would tend to prove this contention as correct. In polls in the week before last year’s midterms the Democrats had leads of upwards of 15% on the Republicans on the generic ballot. Election Day was certainly a lot closer than that.
The contention is that telephone polls overrepresent women, the elderly, the unemployed, the urban, etc. your typical Democrat voter. One way this is clear is when the pollster asks how the voter is registered. If they disportionately polled registered Democrats, their poll results will be skewed. The better pollsters can account for this in their results.
Now the shoe is on the other foot. Liberals are crying foul over online polling. The reason of course is that polls actually influence voter intentions.
Regardless, online polling is here to stay. It’s cheaper to get larger sample sizes. It requires less staff because the public comes to you. It requires less time because people volunteer to answer and don’t refuse to answer. Telemarketing has spoiled the pool of potential interviewees. There are huge numbers of people who refuse to answer phone polls now. I saw a US statistic last year where less than half of placed phone calls ended up in a successful and complete interview. (I wish I could back that up with a link, but I can’t.) That’s driving up the cost and the unreliability of phone polls. People don’t refuse to answer on a random basis, just like they don’t answer online polls on a random basis.
This Angus Reid poll sucks if you’re a Liberal. Now they know what’s it feels like to be a Conservative in the 90’s.
Posted by PlaidShirt | March 2, 2007 5:41 PM
Posted on March 2, 2007 17:41
The SES will come out with a poll shortly, and it will be in line with Decima/Angus Reid: close to 40% for the conservatives.
If it tracked over a weekend expect it to be a couple/few points below that, otherwise expect confirmation of a significant CPC lead.
Thank you,
the ever trustworthy,
Posted by Chester | March 2, 2007 5:45 PM
Posted on March 2, 2007 17:45
Attention Political Staples Readers:
Chester is wrong.
Carry on.
(Sorry buddy, couldn’t resist. Alan is probably right though - 36 to 37)
Posted by Mike | March 2, 2007 9:11 PM
Posted on March 2, 2007 21:11
I would say Allan in my neighborhood, but that would sound too weird.
Posted by Greg | March 3, 2007 7:08 AM
Posted on March 3, 2007 07:08
If Dion wants to convince Canadians from coast to coast that making wild assertions about Stephen Harper goes hand in hand with babbling imcomprehensibly, I think we should let him.
Posted by ebt | March 5, 2007 6:24 PM
Posted on March 5, 2007 18:24