Apolitical Staples

Because Sheila Copps says so. And she’s a genius!

Tequila Sheila’s article is very scrambled. She even gets into “a newly-formed feminist sovereignty party called Quebec Solidaire, filed a complaint with the Quebec Press Council seeking equal treatment.”… Tabernac!

The ADQ is really the old Union National party (conservative). If Charest ends up having to form a coalition government with the ADQ we could actually see Quebec leading the charge on a new Health Care model that would benefit all Canadians. Imagine that, socialist Quebec taking the ROC forward into the 21st century.

What really worries Sheila and the old guard centralist Liberals is that what we are watching is the end of heavy handed Ottawa overtaxing Canadians so as to hold Canada together with asymmetrical bribes that they camouflage as equalization payments.

Maybe Shelia and the Liberals didn’t even realize how co-dependent they were on having the Bloc/PQ as a catalyst for voters in the ROC, particularly Ontario.

So Harper’s budget dealing with the fiscal imbalance will help sideline the PQ (by Charest and the ADQ) and that will remove the notion of Liberals being the only safe heaven to avoid trouble with Quebec. A sea change in the dynamics.

Well, one thing is you don’t necessarily know that it will be a Lib minority. If the ADQ scrambles the vote that much, you could get everyone around 30% and the PQ getting most seats. Also, if you call an election with a majority and then end up with a minority, this is usually interpreted as a defeat (or at least a not quite victory).

So Sheila has a point.

Even if the PQ gets more seats the ADQ can prop up the Liberals like Rae did with Peterson. But your second point is valid, Charest would go from a majority to minority.

Isn’t it traditional, though, that the party with the most seats gets first crack at forming the Gov.?

Well, I believe Sheila’s position is what Dion’s Liberal party has been hoping for. Just last week Dion — rather amazingly — asked Quebecers to vote ADQ or Green if they’re not happy with Liberals. I repeat, a Liberal suggested alternatives to Liberals in the Quebec election. And this was shortly after Dion cried foul over the Tory French ads, saying they might take support away from the Quebec Liberals in the election campaign.

I think it’s pretty clear that Liberals feel a Charest minority would be a blow to Harper’s strategy of allying himself firmly with Charest.

The rise of the ADQ could be packaged by Dion as a sign of dissatisfaction with the way Harper has approached the province.

There’s no reason for the CPC to be concerned one bit. It’s good odds that the PQ won’t form the next Quebec government. And that’s all that counts since Harper has good relations with Dumont and Charest, with even the former’s troops pledged to be on the ground for the CPC in a federal election. Copps’ logic is either torturously wrong, or woefully absent.

One would almost think that Sheila, ex of the “State of Denial” party, is trolling for re-entry and re-election?

Erik, I think you’re off. I think the Liberals clearly see some advantage in a Charest minority and will use it to their advantage if it comes about.

Heck, it’s not the PQ victory they might have been hoping for a few weeks ago. But it might be somewhat of a consolation.

“The thing I am confused about is why this is a problem for the CPC.”

It’s not. But it is for Copps because she’s a Liberal.

She is talking about healing wounds. In Ontario she means McAsswipes wounds. I have said this before and now again. If Harper helps McAsswipe buy the next election in Ontario I think he can say goodbye to a lot of conservative votes, and I don’t think he will convert many libs.

To you Western poo pooers of this, there are I believe 23 tory seats in Ont and I suggest you find out just how pissedoff we are with the lying scumbag and his gang.

So he had better call the federal election before Oct or you lot may have to live with your nightmare.

We Western poo pooers think it is better to be pissedoff than pissedon.

Personally, I wouldn’t read too much into the descent from a Charest majority to a Charest minority on the federal level. Despite Harper’s recent overtures to Charest, I’m pretty sure this campaign comes across as a kind of referendum on the kind of job Charest himself has done thusfar. That’s what everyone’s been targeting, particularly with Charest not having cut taxes nearly as far as he promised he would.

I’m not worried. If there is a minority, dollars to doughnuts says it’s going to be caused by the rise in the ADQ vote. While that split might disproportionately benefit the PQ, nobody except hardcore separatists will take that as an affirmation of the popularity of separatism. If anything, Charest being reduced to a minority by an ascendant ADQ will look even better for Harper.

Let’s remember, while Charest’s cost-cutting plan is the most fiscally conservative, and while Charest is an old Tory, the PLQ is traditionally the party of federal Liberals as well. The ADQ’s strongholds (such as the areas around Quebec city) are Tory strongholds.

In short, any rejection of Charest will be because of local consequences, but if you want to read some kind of federal interpretation into it, you can always point to the success of one or another Harper ally.

Let’s not forget the rest of Canada here. Harper wants to argue that he’s a force for national unity in this country. He can’t do that nearly as easily if his plans result in a Quebec spaghetti parliament.

I think the Liberals have recognized a potential vulnerability and are trying to exploit it.

Their approach to the Quebec provincial election has always kept in mind the larger national unity question. If they can’t get a PQ government to bash, they’ll take a weakened Harper ally.

BCL, my understanding is that at least in theory, the current government gets a first chance at meeting the legislature after an election.

In fact, there was for a very brief period of time some speculation on the night of Election ‘06 that Paul Martin may try to do exactly that, especially if his party + the NDP had enough seats to command a majority. To his credit, Martin quickly scotched that idea.

Usually, the defeated government doesn’t even try to carry on, as the result is usually clear enough - even when the new govt only has a minority. But in theory - and let’s say (a) the PQ had 1 or 2 more seats than the LPQ, and (b) the ADQ controlled the balance, and (c) the ADQ openly committed to supporting the Charest government, then Charest would be justified in going to the Lt. Gov. and saying that he still “commands the confidence” of the majority of the National Assembly, and the LG would probably have to give him the chance to prove it.

FuddleDuddle wrote (I think correctly) every ADQ seat win is a seat the CPC WILL pick up in the next federal election. Obviously the seats don’t line up perfectly, but I take his point.

He contends that the Bloc are in danger in 35 out 50 seats. The separatist cause is dying. The rise of the ADQ is evidence of that. That can’t be anything but good news for Stephen Harper. The liberals need a separatist bogeyman to hold power in Ottawa. Since repatriation of the Constitution (1981) the Liberals have never won a majority of seats in Quebec. The only way they can form a majority government is to scare the rest of the country for a massive pickup of seats.

The only way you can interpret the popularity of the ADQ as bad thing is if you interpret all of their support as pro-sovereignity. As a veteran of the 1995 referendum battle, Sheila Copps can be forgiven for still believing that. Quebec, the ADQ and Mario Dumount have all moved on from 1995.