Greg Weston provides some information on the SES Research poll to be released today.
...SES head Nik Nanos, one of Canada's most respected political analysts, says the fact almost half of Quebec voters polled said they would be okay with a Tory majority is good news for the Conservatives, and potentially terrible news for the Liberals.
"Even though Quebecers aren't saying they are voting Conservative, these numbers provide a comfort scale that suggests they could support Harper -- he is no longer the boogeyman," Nanos notes.
As for Dion, who hasn't set his home province on fire, Nanos says the effect could ripple: "The impression is ... if Quebec is lukewarm to the guy, why would the rest of the country embrace him?"
I will provide a link to the full poll when I find it.
Update: Looks like you can find the polling information here, released on Feb 28.
Comments (13)
Actually Greg, I think Weston is referring to this poll - http://www.sesresearch.com/library/polls/POLNAT-W07-T223.pdf that was released earlier this week. Still very good news overall.
Posted by Rick | March 4, 2007 8:26 AM
Posted on March 4, 2007 08:26
I feel cheated. Where are the voting intentions?
Posted by Greg | March 4, 2007 8:33 AM
Posted on March 4, 2007 08:33
Me too.
Posted by Greg Staples | March 4, 2007 8:38 AM
Posted on March 4, 2007 08:38
Also, am I missing something. The Quebec “uncomfortable” numbers have gone up since august. So while some have shifted from somewhat uncomfortable to comfortable, there has also been a shift to unconfortable (with the two unconfortables still a majority of the province). And if you look in Ontario, the numbers appear to be going the other way, with uncomfortable rising and comfortable going down. Frankly, in looking at the numbers the only trend this shows me is a bare movement since August. This looks to me like Weston jumped on the only “Good News” for the Tories and is now hoping no one will bother to look at the rest of the numbers.
Posted by Greg | March 4, 2007 8:42 AM
Posted on March 4, 2007 08:42
I see the same thing.
Posted by Greg Staples | March 4, 2007 8:43 AM
Posted on March 4, 2007 08:43
I’d like to know more about this one liner in the Weston article: “Dion and Charest, meanwhile, apparently don’t speak. “
Posted by nomdenet | March 4, 2007 8:48 AM
Posted on March 4, 2007 08:48
Actually, this poll is not particularly good news for the Conservatives. The “somewhat uncomfortable” and “uncomfortable” numbers have gone up in all regions (except the West).
That would seem to be contrary to Weston’s headline of “Harper surging, Dion fading”, would it not? If the election is framed in terms of the question - “Do you want to give the Harper team a majority?” - Canadians, according to the Oracle of SES, are saying not yet.
Posted by cb | March 4, 2007 8:54 AM
Posted on March 4, 2007 08:54
It seems to me as if the percentages are now, more or less the same as they were last August. The ratios in the subsets (provinces) have too broad an accuracy rate (eg plus/minus 10% in the Atlantic) to be meaningful.
Posted by ET | March 4, 2007 9:22 AM
Posted on March 4, 2007 09:22
I’m not seeing the same things you guys are - while there was a slight increase in uncomfortable in Quebec, the increase in comfortable was more than twice the increase in uncomfortable, and the total of comfortable or somewhat comfortable has gone up by a larger margin that margin of error. So Weston was right with his comments.
Posted by Rick | March 4, 2007 9:49 AM
Posted on March 4, 2007 09:49
On a diferent subject, or maybe related, but who is the Executive Director of the Conservatives these days?
Posted by Anonymous | March 4, 2007 10:21 AM
Posted on March 4, 2007 10:21
Greg is there an SES poll to be released today?
A real poll, not, “when your sitting in your chair, with a cup of hot chocolate, are you more comfortable in that chair if you think of conservatives or liberals…if you adjust your posture, are you more comfortable, and if so, is it because you believe liberals are pro-comfort?”
Posted by Anonymous | March 4, 2007 10:21 AM
Posted on March 4, 2007 10:21
And I love the underlying premise: that a Harper (ooooohhhh scaaaary) majority would cause one….wink wink “discomfort”.
Posted by Anonymous | March 4, 2007 10:23 AM
Posted on March 4, 2007 10:23
Quebec polls went from 5.4 unsure to zero. A Harper majority has been played up by Libs & MSM for a year. Doesn’t appear Canadians have run for cover, like they did on mention of a majority in 2004 and 2006.
Posted by wilson61 | March 4, 2007 12:55 PM
Posted on March 4, 2007 12:55