Apolitical Staples

and for those who refuse to believe the latest polls (yeah, pick one!) I present this.

Ya, her latest column sure does present the latest conventional wisdom from the Ottawa punditocracy. To wit, Dion is a bust, Harper is all knowing and will win a majority. Too bad his numbers are slipping in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, eh and the overall numbers as far as his prospects for majority have gone nowhere since August (remember yesterday’s poll)? Oh well we will just ignore that and tell a good story. Reality is just too messy to get in the way of a pleasing story.

Chantal “The Liberals already know the answer. If Chrétien were in Harper’s shoes today, he would move in for the kill.”

But that’s because Chrétien and the Liberals never had a philosophy, they just do polls and go for power.

Harper is trying to govern from the centre, which is code for making change incrementally; moving only as fast as busy, overtaxed Canadian parents can digest what the changes will do to the well being of their families.

That process requires getting the information out and letting it sink in. Colossal information will come down this month. A Budget that will deal with fiscal imbalance and hopefully lead to a political framework of Chester’s “re-devolution” and help Charest marginalize the PQ with help from the ADQ. Repercussions from the Budget and the Quebec election could change Canada for decades to come.

Therefore until we get through March, it is unproductive to be talking about an election … there too many significant unknowns to be decided. Once the electorate understands the new landscape, Harper can then set aggressive new priorities and get a mandate to implement them versus the old Liberal way of just gaining power to improve the vesting of the pension plan for Liberal MPs.

Centrist, incrementalism would make a Fall election realistic.

The pundits want an early election, because they know what the polls really say. Another minority, at best, and a toss-up between Dion and Harper as to who wins. If that happens, there will be civil strife in both Tory and Lib camps, which would mean more headlines.

The pundits are also immunizing themselves against future attacks of “Liberal bias”.

I hope the Harperites aren’t drinking all this Cool-Aid.

I think too Anonymous, the pundits are bored (disgusted) by parliament and want to write about a campaign, so they can feel alive again.

“Ya, her latest column sure does present the latest conventional wisdom from the Ottawa punditocracy. To wit, Dion is a bust, Harper is all knowing and will win a majority.”

The word “majority” does not occur in the article. Try reading the linked items once in a while if you’re going to comment, Sinsister Man.

Furthermore, Hebert is hardly a conduit for conventional wisdom and certainly isn’t shy about criticizing Harper. She’s one of the few fair columnists in the country, in fact.

Not thatI think Harper is on the verge of a majority (file under too good to be true), but Hebert fairly assesses what has not been a very successful start to Dion’s tenure, to say the least.

Alan, ever hear the phrase “plausible deniability”?

I think the fact that we are in pre-election mode has a lot to do with this new conventional wisdom. The idea we would have an election when the status quo was almost assured seems absurd. So, that must be discounted, because our parties wouldn’t be dumb enough to hold an election under those circumstances, right? Harper must have a plan to win that majority and “everyone knows” Dion is a dud, so let’s all right columns repeating these themes over and over again. Can’t get too far away from the herd.

write, not right. My dyslexia kicks in when I get excited. ;)

PM Harper has said he is interested in governing as long as he can. He has shown that he says what he means and does what he says.I don’t think we will have a spring election. Let the Liberals govern by polls and power lust.

I am familiar with the phrase, just utterly at a loss as to its applicability to anything being discussed here. Perhaps you could admit us to the arcane reasoning behind your reference?

Sure, she (and most pundits) live or die according to their credibility. She would look a complete fool if she said flat out that Harper will win a majority and he doesn’t. So she (and the rest of our commentariat) use phrases like “widening the gap between his Conservatives and their party” to hint broadly at the possibility of Harper striding the land like a giant without actually saying it. It gives them wiggle room.

If the numbers show a possible majority, why would PMSH want an election? He can govern like he had one, and keep aim on the separatists.
Bonus, Libs would hang onto Dion in fear of a snap election.

PMSH will go down in the history books as the PM with the longest running minority government.

p.s. If PMSH jumps at the first chance of a majority, Libs would do that scary Harper thing and it could work.
Canadians would be more in their comfort zone if the Conservatives just keep on keepin’ on.

I agree with your line of thinking Wilson, but I suspect we are in the minority.

“…politically savvy Liberals do not really need the media to tell them Stephen Harper is widening the gap between his Conservatives and their party.”

So where does that leave Cherniak?

Okay, I’ve just polished up my crystal ball, everything is coming into focus … the NDP and BLOC will indeed vote against Flaherty’s budget, for their respective, obvious reasons. Dion will rail against the budget too, bring down his three-line whip, but this time, enough nervous-nelly Liberal MPs won’t show up, hence the budget passes narrowly. Harper governs a while longer, the Liberals are in disarray, but feeling somewhat relieved, now having more time to figure out how to dump Dion. But Harper now holds all the cards, can get more of his ducks in a row, ready to torpedo the Liberal Titanic a few more times. Thus resulting in an even more entertaining, slow motion train wreck for all us junkies.

PMSH does not want an election yet.He wants to wait for the “foundation fallout”( now that the A.G. can finally look at the books)!