This one is from Angus Reid.
Conseratives: 38%
Liberals: 28%
New Democrats: 15%
Bloc Quebecois: 11%
Greens: 7%
The reason for the difference between this poll and the Decima poll from yesterday is Quebec. And the lowering of the gap from 14 to 10 (other than margin of error) is in Ontario.
...In Quebec, the Bloc has the support of 37 per cent of decided voters, with the Conservatives in second place with 25 per cent, and the Liberals third with 24 per cent. In Ontario, the governing party holds a five-point advantage over the official opposition. The Tories are the most popular political organization in British Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan, while the Grits are ahead in Atlantic Canada.
Comments (15)
This strikes me as a more ‘likely’ polling result than the Decima effort. If only because I just can’t believe that Dion is as popular in Quebec as Decima indicates. I mean they KNOW the guy, and the Party he represents. Frankly Quebec is a ‘bonus’ anyway, Ontario is the BIG DEAL here.
But time will tell I suppose.
Let’s VOTE and get this farce over with. If Harper has not ‘earned’ at least a very strong minority by now, there is probably no hope for this country anyway. Time won’t make all that much of a difference.
Posted by dougf | March 9, 2007 4:01 PM
Posted on March 9, 2007 16:01
This is an online poll. They had the Tories up by 14 points last week.
Perhaps Staples should contact an online poll of his own, and release the results weekly. I mean, why not?
Posted by Anonymous | March 9, 2007 4:40 PM
Posted on March 9, 2007 16:40
I doubt that a company like Angus-Reid would risk their reputation (and business) by using a methodology that gave incorrect results.
Posted by Greg Staples | March 9, 2007 4:45 PM
Posted on March 9, 2007 16:45
Dougf , take heart .. 3 years ago I thought we might get David Orchard as head of the Conservatives. We’ve come a long way …sure .. we have a long way to go . .and we’ll get there … because we’re right .. : >)
Posted by nomdenet | March 9, 2007 4:49 PM
Posted on March 9, 2007 16:49
“online interviews” is all I had to read to know that this poll is a crock of crap.
Posted by Dwayne | March 9, 2007 5:12 PM
Posted on March 9, 2007 17:12
I actually wrote on how I diddled about with this online survey yesterday. Gave the wrong age, sex, the phone number for my LCBO…and voted Tory! Since I used a hotmail account as my email, and this was accepted, I don’t know why I couldn’t do the same thing a dozen times over
I think its a crock (even though I like the result this week better than last), very easy to prank.
Posted by bigcitylib | March 9, 2007 5:19 PM
Posted on March 9, 2007 17:19
An online poll is your typical Globe and Mail or Suzuki poll, this is an email invitation poll. Bigcitylib, it’s just as easy to lie on a phone in poll, so your point would be what? So, this type of poll is no less accurate than a phone in poll is, only people who have signed up to participate in surveys get the invite, just as some people are never going to answer a phone in poll, so both are biased towards those predisposed to answer surveys.
Posted by Hunter | March 9, 2007 7:08 PM
Posted on March 9, 2007 19:08
Hunter,
Your phone number ties you to a physical location and therefore to a whack of information about you (class, ethnicity, etc., all got through places like Stats Canada). Online, you could be coming from almost anywhere (unless they are tracking your IP),
And in a phone poll you can only lie once. Online you can lie as many times as you can create a hotmail account.
Posted by bigcitylib | March 9, 2007 7:31 PM
Posted on March 9, 2007 19:31
I doubt that a company like Angus-Reid would risk their reputation (and business) by using a methodology that gave incorrect results.
Depends.
It is possible to create a solid online sample. But, it is expensive because you have to essentially create a subset from an existing telephone survey database. If what BCL writes is true, Angus-Reid appears not to have created one.
But, you would almost inevitably undersample the most important voting block - seniors.
You would also undersample people who either do not have access to or are uncomfortable using computers.
I would rely on properly constituted Internet polls for some surveys, but not for gauging voter intentions.
Posted by Anonymous | March 9, 2007 7:35 PM
Posted on March 9, 2007 19:35
Anon 19:31,
The way I understand it, to create your subset you have to make some kind of “physical” contact with the people in your database (calling them, basically). Once you’ve done all that, you can cut out costs of surveying (long-distance bills, for example) by doing follow up all over the Net. But first you have to verify that the people in your database live where they say they do etc., before you can proceed.
Posted by bigcitylib | March 9, 2007 7:46 PM
Posted on March 9, 2007 19:46
These numbers are pretty much identical to their (Reid’s that is) numbers a couple of days before the last election. In fact it is frightening how the numbers have not moved all that much in a year. The only thing that has changed is the MSM’s desire to hype “the Tory momentum”. Ho hum.
http://www.angus-reid.com/tracker/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=10041
Posted by Greg | March 9, 2007 8:06 PM
Posted on March 9, 2007 20:06
The way I understand it, to create your subset you have to make some kind of “physical” contact with the people in your database (calling them, basically).
Precisely.
During the regular phone surveys, they ask whether people would also be interested in Internet surveys.
Emails are recorded for those who agree, and a new subset sample is created. It is pretty much the same way pollsters create their samples for Focus Groups.
Posted by Anonymous | March 9, 2007 8:34 PM
Posted on March 9, 2007 20:34
Sinister Greg, Angus Reid and Ipsos Reid are two different firms.
Posted by Greg Staples | March 9, 2007 8:51 PM
Posted on March 9, 2007 20:51
Socialist Greg,
except that the numbers have moved considerably for the CPC since Dion pulled even,
and there are many indicators suggesting the movement will continue,
and none supporting a Dion comeback.
Oh, the conservative Sun is rising on our land, my left leaning friend.
Posted by Chester | March 9, 2007 11:53 PM
Posted on March 9, 2007 23:53
Sheepish grin. I knew that….really. But the numbers are very, very similar to last January. Don’t you find that interesting?
Posted by Greg | March 10, 2007 7:40 AM
Posted on March 10, 2007 07:40