Apolitical Staples

I also agree that this doesn’t pass the smell test, especially for Ontario outside of Toronto. Like what happened in the Quebec election, there is going to be a voter revolt here in the small towns and outer suburbs against anything construed as representing the “downtown urban elitists”, and the Liberal Party represents all of that.

Finally. Reality. Can you handle the truth? ;)

Actually, reading the Sun today, The Cons and Liberals are in a dead heat in Ontario - 41-40 for the Libs. I can;t get more detail from SES, as their link to the pdf is not working, but they had the Cons at 41% in the West 40% in Ontario, 28% in Quebec and Maritimes. Liberals were at 40% Maritimes, 18% Quebec, 41% Ontario and 35% West.

If you remove Toronto and Vancouver, where the Liberals have traditionally had a huge advantage over the Cons, then I think these numbers would look pretty good to the Cons. Probably still not good enough for a majority, unless the left vote in specific ridings can be split enough for the Cons to come up the middle.

Based on these numbers, I would say 135 to 145 seats would be the projection for the Conservatives.

I would wait a few more weeks for more accurate Quebec data. I would also discount provincial breakouts - the MoE on those samples tend to be large.

All the polls show the same thing. Not much has changed since early 2006.

I found a link to the pdf through Nik’s blog ietm. Here is the link: http://www.nikonthenumbers.com/viewer/index/42

Well, first of all the regional numbers are such a small sample as to be nearly meaningless. With the NDP at 13% in Quebec, I’d have to treat those numbers with a BIG grain of salt. Likely, I’d drop the NDP down to about 8%, and suggest that the Conservatives and Liberals are both around 24%, showing strength in different parts of the province at the expense of the Bloc Quebecois.

The Ontario numbers, again taken with a grain of salt, do suggest that the race is polarizing in this province. NDP support is down, and Conservative and Liberal support are both up (36/38% for both parties two months ago, 40/41% now).

The West has the largest sample size of all the regions, but I think those numbers are thwarted by the inaccuracies inherent in seeing the area as a single monolithic region, rather than three distinct ones. Tory strength is likely to be found in Alberta, possibly with NDP and/or Liberal strength in Saskatchewan/Manitoba, and with BC proving to be a competitive three-way race.

Nationally, we appear to be back at our election day numbers, with the Liberals showing greater strength, and with Conservative support evening out across the country (which is good news for them, since they had an excess of support in Alberta which bulked up their popular support without a significant increase in seats. Under these numbers, more seats in Ontario are now in play).

Some of the regionals are posted in the comments at my site, as many people couldn’t get the .pdf to work.

“voter revolt with suburban and small town voters”? Don’t hold your breath. I live in rural Ontario and believe me the farmers are “angry” at the CPC.

Voters don’t want an election, that’s obvious. We don’t need to spend $300 million of taxpayer money to get another minority government. I know Harper has been using our tax money for 15 months campaigning - isn’t that enough of “our” money spent for his personal obsession?

The more he does it, the more I don’t want him as PM.

“I know Harper has been using our tax money for 15 months campaigning - isn’t that enough of “our” money spent for his personal obsession? The more he does it, the more I don’t want him as PM.”

Um yeah, like you’ve ever been neutral or considered wanting Harper as PM. In all the posts I’ve read from you on this blog, you’ve done nothing but find something to criticize Harper with, repeated Liberal partisan talking points, or make other comments coming out of blogs from the extreme left. I can’t think of a single comment of yours where you’ve had anything productive to say to the discussion.

To quote an earlier reply to one of your comments, all we’re hearing when we see your posts are “blah blah blah blah blah”….

It’s SES. Ain’t no way to spin it.

Unless, this is the outlier, the 1 in 20 that makes the other 19 accurate.

I guess, one positive is that Dion’s support is wafer then. Anytime the Conservatives run negative ads against him, his numbers start dropping. Look at Quebec this time.

I would never call support in Canada for the Federal Liberals wafer thin.

Its SES and yes they’ve had some good results. On the other hand look at that graph its horrible skewed as an average given that the first severals days they had 49% support for the Liberals? Where were they phoning to get that Toronto center? Its only towards the end that they got results comparitive to every other poll we’ve seen lately, so I’m calling this one a rogue poll.

If nothing else I have a hard time believing they can honestly think that a fluctuate of 16% over the course of five or so days gives an accurate result.

ok… we have a bunch of polls that individually have the cons around the upper 30’s and the libs around 30. Now we have SES who has cons at 36 and libs at 33 with an MOE of +-3%. I don’t put much trust in any poll, but I do believe in convergence of evidence. If there are a bunch of polls showing trends for the conservatives hovering around majority territory and the libs around 30%, and given the MOE on the SES poll is +-3%, would it not be in the realm of possibility that the cons could be at 39%(+3) and the libs at 30% (-3)?

just thinking out loud

It’s SES. Ain’t no way to spin it.

I can give it a try.

(ahem)

“While we Conservatives remain at our election night numbers, we are realizing gains in areas of the country where we were behind back in 2006, especially in Ontario and Quebec. We may be losing support in some areas out west, as it’s unfortunately true that you can’t please all of the people all of the time, but the trends suggest that these losses are being picked up elsewhere.

“In other words, the Conservative Party is reinforcing its status as a truly national party.”

How’d I do?

It disturbs me to see people treating polls from any company - no matter how lucky/accurate they’ve been in the past - as gospel, and leaving their own brains at the door.

Analyzing the numbers - like James has done - is the only intelligent way to approach ANY poll, even one by SES.

chris,

That 49% figure was from back when Chretien was still PM; note the “02” at the bottom.