the gap (uh-um, the Decima gap) is closing.
Conservatives: 34%
Liberals: 31%
New Democrats: 15%
Greens: 11%
Bloc Quebecois: 7%
Remember my rule of thumb, ok the other rule of thumb, any poll with the Greens over 10% is to be discarded.
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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on April 17, 2007 3:41 PM.
The previous post in this blog was You down with MMP.
The next post in this blog is Here is a question for ya.
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Comments (15)
I don’t think you can discard a poll which places the Green that high. If you pull the numbers down by the margin of error, I could see the Greens getting that amount of support.
Decima isn’t the only pollster who has placed the Greens above 10%, and every last pollster has, for the last few months, placed the Greens significantly above their election-night numbers (4.5%). So, the fact that people responding to these opinion polls are telling pollsters they’re voting Green, is for real.
The thing is, of course, is that a large chunk of that support, even at 11%, is likely parked, since the Greens represent a pretty safe protest vote for voters to express their displeasure at the other mainstream parties.
The big question, of course, is what happens when an election is called. Do those 11% vote Green, stay home, or shift to one of the other parties?
Posted by James Bow | April 17, 2007 4:07 PM
Posted on April 17, 2007 16:07
I wonder if we’ll see Sinister Greg show up to discount this poll too saying “if it conflicts with SES it must be false”, though truthfully I do tend to put more stock in polls by Ipsos, SES or the Strategic Counsel than some of the other firms.
Posted by chris | April 17, 2007 4:29 PM
Posted on April 17, 2007 16:29
“Remember my rule of thumb, ok the other rule of thumb, any poll with the Greens over 10% is to be discarded.”
LOL! Good rule of thumb!
Posted by Christian Conservative | April 17, 2007 4:47 PM
Posted on April 17, 2007 16:47
I wonder if we’ll see Sinister Greg show up to discount this poll too saying “if it conflicts with SES it must be false”, though truthfully I do tend to put more stock in polls by Ipsos, SES or the Strategic Counsel than some of the other firms.
It’s good to see my work is not in vain. ;)
Posted by Greg | April 17, 2007 5:22 PM
Posted on April 17, 2007 17:22
For the Decima detractors, note that the 3-point spread is not that different from last week’s SES poll or recent Ipsos-Reid poll.
CTV Duffy is reporting that the Tory War Room has been shut down.
Posted by Anonymous | April 17, 2007 5:57 PM
Posted on April 17, 2007 17:57
CTV Duffy is reporting that the Tory War Room has been shut down.
You know of course what this means. We are having an election this spring. ;)
Posted by Greg | April 17, 2007 6:19 PM
Posted on April 17, 2007 18:19
Conservatives still “stuck” in the mid 30’s. Interesting.
Posted by Alan | April 17, 2007 7:04 PM
Posted on April 17, 2007 19:04
“Conservatives still “stuck” in the mid 30’s. Interesting.”
Oh, I’d say they are at least stuck as far as the 1950s, lol.
Posted by Markus D. | April 17, 2007 7:07 PM
Posted on April 17, 2007 19:07
“Oh, I’d say they are at least stuck as far as the 1950s, lol.”
Why?
Posted by Alan | April 18, 2007 7:09 AM
Posted on April 18, 2007 07:09
Alan, never mind Markus - he’s just another Liberal ignoramus.
My rule of thumb - any poll commissioned by the Canadian Press (or news for that matter) is to be discounted - they’re own left-wing “hidden agenda” drips out of everything that comes from them.
Posted by TorontoCrawler | April 18, 2007 8:20 AM
Posted on April 18, 2007 08:20
Of course, it’s also possible that one’s right-wing agenda colours everything one disagrees with as evidence of a left-wing “hidden” agenda.
Posted by James Bow | April 18, 2007 10:06 AM
Posted on April 18, 2007 10:06
Hopefully this puts an end to the cult of Harper. All of that money poured into Quebec, all that campaigning from the left, all for nothing. He deserves to lose if he thinks he can ignore the conservative base that brought him to power.
Posted by Dwayne | April 18, 2007 10:22 AM
Posted on April 18, 2007 10:22
“Of course, it’s also possible that one’s right-wing agenda colours everything one disagrees with as evidence of a left-wing “hidden” agenda.”
Of course, that might be a valid statement if any of “right wing”, “left wing” or “hidden agenda” were usefully definable terms rather than meaningless, inflammatory jibber jabber.
Posted by Alan | April 18, 2007 2:05 PM
Posted on April 18, 2007 14:05
Too true.
Posted by James Bow | April 18, 2007 3:10 PM
Posted on April 18, 2007 15:10
Dwayne: “Hopefully this puts an end to the cult of Harper. All of that money poured into Quebec, all that campaigning from the left, all for nothing. He deserves to lose if he thinks he can ignore the conservative base that brought him to power.”
Of course. Minority governments ALWAYS ram their ideas through parliament.
Give your head a shake, already, and get off the soapbox.
Canadian conservatives tend to be left of American Democrats (same sex, anyone? gun control? etc.) with a few exceptions (unlimited abortion-on-demand a sacred cow?).
All I can suggest, Dwayne, is that if you want a truly conservative gov’t, you move to a truly conservative country. Harper could rule the roost for 20 years and we would STILL probably be left of both the US and Australia.
Posted by Anonymous | April 19, 2007 3:29 AM
Posted on April 19, 2007 03:29