Nik Nanos played the imagine game in his latest poll.
[Bloc voters only] If the Bloc Quebecois did not exist federally and you had to choose between the federal [rotate] Liberals, Conservatives, NDP or Green Party, which federal party would you vote for? Values in parenthesis represent the change in support if the BQ did not exist.
Canada without Bloc (N=910, MoE ± 3.3%, 19 times out of 20)
Conservative Party 39% (+3)
Liberal 34% (+1)
NDP 19% (+3)
Green Party 8% (+2)
None 1% (0)
Quebec without Bloc (N=230, MoE ± 6.5%, 19 times out of 20)
Conservative Party 41% (+13)
Liberal 21% (+3)
NDP 23% (+10)
Green Party 12% (+8)
None 4% (0)
Though I am sure that the other parties want to know what happens if their chief competitor disappears as well. That being said, this is not only a Conservative fantasy but an NDP one as well. They have long thought they were the natural home of the social democrat voter in Quebec. I did touch on this question when I interviewed Jamey Heath here.
Comments (6)
41% of Quebecers would vote for the non-Kyoto party, the anti-gay marriage party, the aggressive foreign policy party, the pro-Israel party, if the Bloc were removed? What does it all mean? My head is swimming. Doesn’t the Bloc diametrically oppose the CPC in many crucial policy areas? Don’t Quebecers care about policy? I understand the stampede to the utopian NDP, but to the party that’s an amalgam of Reformers and Blue(ish) Tories?
And if polls are garbage, are imaginary polls imaginary garbage?
Posted by Alan | April 17, 2007 10:28 AM
Posted on April 17, 2007 10:28
I’m a little curious as to the numbers you have posted. There appears to be a regional breakdown for the numbers of Canada( n= 910 ) and Quebec (n =230).
I am a bit confused by this. Why in the world would SES decide to poll people outside of Quebec on their voting intentions if they already can’t vote for the Bloc? Does this poll from “Canada” not include Quebec?
I can understand the relevancy of the second poll “des Québéquois” as the Bloc is a party that they can vote for, but not the first of “Canadians” who can’t exactly vote for the BQ.
Where they trying to find a subset of Canadian voters that would vote depending a parties ability to “counter” the BQ?.
I am confused.
Posted by DanL | April 17, 2007 10:50 AM
Posted on April 17, 2007 10:50
It just shows what happens to the national numbers if the BQ are removed from the Quebec equation.
Posted by Greg Staples | April 17, 2007 10:57 AM
Posted on April 17, 2007 10:57
Alan, consider the case of a conservative nationalist in Quebec. If his loyalty is to Quebec first, he votes Bloc, regardless of policy, to advance the cause of Quebec nationalism. Remove the Bloc from the equation, and he votes Conservative.
And it looks like there are a LOT more conservative-minded nationalists out there than we thought - or that the Liberal name in Quebec is still a very tattered one.
Posted by Ian in NS | April 17, 2007 11:19 AM
Posted on April 17, 2007 11:19
Decima. Con/Lib 34/31 nationwide.
Quebec - Bloc/Con/Lib 29/20/21.
Strange numbers for the NDP and Greens in Quebec.
Posted by Anonymous | April 17, 2007 12:26 PM
Posted on April 17, 2007 12:26
New Decima has Tories lead cut to three,Libs 2nd in Quebec but Bloc under thirty. Kind of interesting to compare to this poll.
Posted by bigcitylib | April 17, 2007 12:42 PM
Posted on April 17, 2007 12:42