Two in a row for Decima.
Liberals: 31%
Conservatives: 30%
New Democrats: 15%
Greens: 13%
Bloc Quebecois: ~9%
...Anderson said the poll may reflect "the new normal" for both the Liberals and Conservatives, which is "not whether they can get to 40 (per cent) but whether they can sustain a number that's higher than 30 or 35." "And that obviously puts in question whether or not there's a majority government for anybody in the forseeable future."I still don't believe polls that have the Greens above 10% (and let's see what the Nazi comment does to next weeks Decima poll) but it looks like Gerry Nicholls is right - all this morphing into Canada's New Liberal Party isn't getting them into magical majority terrority, it's getting them defeated.
Comments (22)
Check out the CROP poll in La Presse and compare the Quebec numbers:
Decima: Bloc 34 Liberals 21
CPC 18
Green 13 NDP 10
CROP: Bloc 28 Liberals 22
CPC 26
Green 8 NDP 15
Slight difference, n’est-cs pas ?
Posted by bcbarbie | May 1, 2007 7:40 PM
Posted on May 1, 2007 19:40
Slight difference, n’est-cs pas ?
Slight, yes.
Only in the Bloc/CPC number. The Lib, Green/NDP numbers are the same.
What are the MoEs - Decima/Quebec will be about 6%. What was Crop’s?
Posted by Anonymous | May 1, 2007 7:55 PM
Posted on May 1, 2007 19:55
Isn’t it interesting that the Liberals are not setting the world on fire either?
Posted by Greg | May 1, 2007 7:57 PM
Posted on May 1, 2007 19:57
If, as is generally assumed, those Green votes are soft, where will they go? My guess - and it’s not based on anything definite - is that vote-parking with the Greens resembles the swing voters who would often park with the NDP or the Liberals in the past. So will they go Liberal? Or NDP? Or Tory?
Well, it’ll be interesting to see what happens. But if ever there was a party likely to be adversely affected by strategic voting, it’s the Greens.
Posted by Josh Gould | May 1, 2007 8:07 PM
Posted on May 1, 2007 20:07
The CROP poll only looks at Quebec voters, not all of Canada. However their sample for Quebec is 1,000 (Montreal = 500, Quebec City = 200, rest of the province = 300), so I think they pick up the regional variances better than the national polling companies.
I guess my point is that a swing of +8 for CPC, +5 for NDP and -5 for Green is fairly substantial, so just how valid can the rest of Decima’s numbers be .
Posted by bcbarbie | May 1, 2007 8:25 PM
Posted on May 1, 2007 20:25
“all this morphing into Canada’s New Liberal Party isn’t getting them into magical majority terrority, it’s getting them defeated” I agree come out in the open and go down in a blaze of gory!
Posted by jim | May 1, 2007 8:30 PM
Posted on May 1, 2007 20:30
“all this morphing into Canada’s New Liberal Party isn’t getting them into magical majority terrority, it’s getting them defeated” Agreed come clean be honest and go down in a blaze of gory!
Posted by ralph | May 1, 2007 8:47 PM
Posted on May 1, 2007 20:47
Gerry Nichols is a libertarian and he gives little concern about the country or the average Canadian. Low tax fanatics are shills for the wealthy many times. Taxes need to be lower but not at the cost of a polyglot society where being a Canadian was some diatribe by some secret society hack in the darkness. A Canadian is somebody born in this country and totally emersed in its culture and not just somebody that came here to cash in.
Posted by Anonymous | May 1, 2007 9:41 PM
Posted on May 1, 2007 21:41
Decima’s poll is bogus.
CROP’s poll, which has a large sample for a smaller area and is therefore inherently more reliable by a signficant margin,
proves Decima is bogus.
The election is appearing less likely, and so Decima’s people know their number twisting will likely not be tested against a true vote.
If the election talk heats up, watch Harper’s numbers rise as spectacularily as they have fallen.
Posted by Chester | May 1, 2007 9:58 PM
Posted on May 1, 2007 21:58
Decima’s poll is bogus.
On what are you basing that?
CROP’s poll, which has a large sample for a smaller area and is therefore inherently more reliable by a signficant margin, proves Decima is bogus.
Well, no, it means that the CROP poll simply has a lower margin of error on the Quebec numbers.
That’s it.
Posted by Josh Gould | May 1, 2007 10:02 PM
Posted on May 1, 2007 22:02
Attention Political Staples readers,
Josh Gould is wrong.
Thank you and have a fantastic spring evening.
Posted by Chester | May 1, 2007 10:18 PM
Posted on May 1, 2007 22:18
Does anyone have a link to the CROP poll?
Posted by Greg Staples | May 1, 2007 10:30 PM
Posted on May 1, 2007 22:30
This may explain Decima’s desire to assist the Libs in the PR department.
During the last reporting period the CPC has recieved ten times the amount of contributions as the Libs.
TEN TIMES. 5 mil to 500 g’s.
Unbelievable.
Here:
http://www.dustmybroom.com/?p=6464
Posted by Anonymous | May 1, 2007 10:44 PM
Posted on May 1, 2007 22:44
Found it:
http://www.cyberpresse.ca/article/20070430/CPSOLEIL/70430219&SearchID=73279783609022
Au fédéral, le gouvernement de Stephen Harper profite d’une embellie manifeste, son taux de satisfaction ayant grimpé de 10 points, à 57 %, depuis la mi-février.
Si des élections fédérales avaient été tenues à la fin d’avril, le Bloc québécois aurait obtenu 28 % des votes, contre 26 % pour les conservateurs, 22 % pour les libéraux et 15 % pour le Nouveau Parti démocratique.
Cette enquête CROP a été menée auprès de 1001 personnes du 19 au 29 avril derniers. Un échantillon de cette taille est considéré précis à ± 3 % 19 fois sur 20.
Posted by Josh Gould | May 1, 2007 11:17 PM
Posted on May 1, 2007 23:17
I thought only SES was gospel. Now it’s Decima? I can’t keep up. I guess this means the Ipsos poll showing the CPC at 38% was way off.
Posted by Alan | May 2, 2007 8:12 AM
Posted on May 2, 2007 08:12
Alan, never fear, SES is still gospel. This is just a giggle.
Posted by Greg | May 2, 2007 9:46 AM
Posted on May 2, 2007 09:46
Allow me to point out that if Candians really decide to get rid of the Tories, they aren’t likely to turn to the Greens or the NDP.
Posted by Jason Cherniak | May 2, 2007 10:12 AM
Posted on May 2, 2007 10:12
And they sure aren’t going to turn to Dion, can you say weak leader.
Posted by Keith | May 2, 2007 10:29 AM
Posted on May 2, 2007 10:29
Jason the polls have been virtually the same for two years. If there was going to be a groundswell for the Liberals, don’t you think it would have happened by now? This configuration might be more or less permanent. All the more reason to start seriously considering electoral reform for Canada.
Posted by Greg | May 2, 2007 11:43 AM
Posted on May 2, 2007 11:43
No. We saw the possibilities in December following the convention. The truth, though, is that people don’t know Dion. He will need to be leader for at least a year before you can tell whether he is gaining traction.
Posted by Jason Cherniak | May 2, 2007 12:50 PM
Posted on May 2, 2007 12:50
“He will need to be leader for at least a year before you can tell whether he is gaining traction.”
Difficult to do when at the best of times, he appears to be running on ice, with scissors.
Posted by Candace | May 3, 2007 1:26 AM
Posted on May 3, 2007 01:26
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Posted by uropian | May 6, 2007 5:06 PM
Posted on May 6, 2007 17:06