SES Research has a poll out today in which they hypothesize that Conservative support is inversly proportional to focus on Afghanistan.
...Generally, Canadians are divided on the government's handling of the mission (44% agree with how the mission is being handled, 48% disagree the rest were unsure). However, 55% of Canadians believe that Canada and NATO together have not deployed the resources necessary to succeed. Sixty seven percent of Canadians think our mission makes Canada more of a terrorist target and 55% of Canadians think that if the casualties continue Canada should pull out (39% of Canadians think that casualties are a necessary part of our mission).
Although the mission may be good at consolidating core Tory support it basically throws a wrench in any effort for the Tories to build a majority coalition (even 40% of committed Conservative supporters think the government should pull out if the casualties continue).
We have been hearing about the so-called spring offensive since before the spring began. We've also had the Conservatives denying a spring election for as long. Makes me think that Conservatives internals tell them the same thing - don't have an election during periods where casualities are higher than the quiet periods in Afghanistan.
Greg Weston has more on the poll.

Comments (9)
If you assume that the voting profile has not been normalized, the SES numbers track Decima and Ipsos very closely.
Libs: 27.9 Con: 27.4 NDP: 14.2 Bloc: 7.4 Green: 8.8 Undecided: 14.3
Posted by Anonymous | May 6, 2007 10:48 AM
Posted on May 6, 2007 10:48
A few simple words, “It’s the war, stupid”. There have been no issues, the environment included, that have sparked the average Canadian voter. With respect to the war however, they don’t like to see their sons and daughters coming home in boxes, and that old “peacekeeping” notion is in everybody’s head. If the war ceased to exist, Harper would be enjoying an easy majority.
Posted by Dirk Gibson | May 6, 2007 10:52 AM
Posted on May 6, 2007 10:52
i suppose we’ll see some increased attacks on canadian troops now . whoever did this poll should be charged with accessory to murder.
Posted by john demerais | May 6, 2007 11:48 AM
Posted on May 6, 2007 11:48
so given this do you think chubbakins will cut and run?
Posted by steve | May 6, 2007 12:44 PM
Posted on May 6, 2007 12:44
So let Canadians come up with an acceptable number of deaths by which we measure our fortitude. Then in any future conflict we can resolutely proclaim that we proudly stand behind our values, right up to the nth death.
Posted by SoftUnderbelly | May 6, 2007 1:16 PM
Posted on May 6, 2007 13:16
Good point Soft…, this question should be addressed to the Thomas Walkom, CBC, E. Margolis etc. knows best of Canadian values.
Posted by jr | May 6, 2007 1:57 PM
Posted on May 6, 2007 13:57
For me, it’s who’s in control and Harper/MacKay/O’Connor are dismal. My problem is more about corrupt Karzai, their laws, etc.
Unless they seperate church and state and continue with the Sharia law - the whole mission is doomed.
Karzai, corrupt and all, complains to us and doesn’t mind getting our money and protection for him.
I don’t think he’s to be trusted.
Posted by Lynne | May 6, 2007 3:19 PM
Posted on May 6, 2007 15:19
Pollsters really like the first week in May for polling on the Afghan mission. Compare to one year ago:
Most Cdns. oppose Afghanistan deployment: poll
May. 6 2006
CTV.ca News Staff
A new poll suggests most Canadians now oppose sending troops to Afghanistan.
The poll, which was conducted by The Strategic Counsel for CTV and The Globe and Mail, found 54 per cent of Canadians are against the deployment of troops.
Of those, 23 per cent are strongly opposed — an increase of eight percentage points from the previous survey.
“That’s the really interesting number,” said Timothy Woolstencroft, managing partner for The Strategic Counsel.
“There is starting to be greater opposition to the Afghanistan initiative — and this is a real source of weakness for the government.”
The specific question asked was: “Overall, would you say you strongly support, support, oppose or strongly oppose the decision to send Canadian troops to Afghanistan?”
… “It’s probably been the most controversial part of the Conservatives’ first 100 days in government, and Canadians are clearly more than ambivalent,” he said.
Of all the provinces, Quebec is most opposed to sending troops to Afghanistan.
….
In Quebec, 70 per cent of those surveyed now oppose sending troops to Afghanistan, compared to 53 per cent in mid-March.
…50 per cent in Ontario opposed sending troops there, with 42 per cent in support;
45 per cent in the West were in opposition, with 49 per cent in support; and 49 per cent in the rest of Canada were in opposition, with 44 per cent in support.
Posted by wilson61 | May 6, 2007 6:06 PM
Posted on May 6, 2007 18:06
Anti war,
Green movement,
are just political tools for those on the left.
Want proof?
Nary a peep on Af’stan, or Global warming when the Libs were in power from the leftist/media establishment.
It’s as if they didn’t exist prior to Harper coming into power.
Harper is supposed to stop the world from warming,
the previous libs, well, they weren’t supposed to do anything. The left was in a state of contentment with their party in power.
Posted by Chuckles | May 7, 2007 8:21 AM
Posted on May 7, 2007 08:21