Apolitical Staples

I dont know if the Liberals can say no to Kyoto. They have too much invested in this emotionally and intellectually to turn their back on it. Plus it would be like a catholic going to church and not taking communion. I mean there are things in the religion of environmentalism you just can’t do.

This is also ignoring the fact it will only stop half a degree of climate change over 100 years. And if you are wondering how the Liberals could get so much intellect and emotion invested in such a flawed treaty, then you don’t know enough about Liberals

Dion has a press conference today. My guess is that Kyoto and the Afghanistan mission will be two of his markers.

actually, the Libs had a higher surplus than any party in most recent annual return to Elections Canada. Given the Citizen story on Tory defrauding taxpayers an election would be very bad news for the government.

Mr. Anon… what ARE you talking about?

Was about to say the same about anon’s comment. It’s as out there as Dion’s alleged “inter-galactic superhighway waterway” or whatever he was babbling about prior to the summit.

This is beautiful. If the Liberals support this legislation they had the most part in seeing rammed through and they defeat this Government over it, then they fight an election with no money and a very weak leader. If not, then they will turn their back on this legislation and support this Government on its Throne Speech and look even less principled than before (if that is even possible). Either way, the future continues to look bright for Conservatives in Canada.

The Liberals could abstain — say that they agree in principle but don’t think that the country is ready for an election right now.

Well Dion is supposed to have a press conference today, so we will be in a better position to judge how serious he is about standing up for Rodriguez’s Bill C288.

You can read the Libs press release from Wed, here. And Ivison from the Nat Post weighs in here.

There’s some semi-tough talk from Rodriguez and McGuinty, but nothing quoted from Dion.

My best guess is that Dion will talk about going the court route to challenge the government. There’s obviously a great opportunity for Layton to press the issue politically in the House. The loss of face to Dion if they abstain voting on any non-confidence vote would be huge. Layton would play that up big time, and May would be on the spot as to why she’s teaming up with such a weak green “hero”.

Lesson for Dion: short-term political gain will end up in long-term political pain IF you don’t think your policies all the way through.

That is true Ben, but by abstaining, the Government would survive and the Liberals then would be allowing the Tories to ignore the Opposition’s Kyoto bill that they said MUST be adhered to.

Still bad optics for their Liberals.

Good post, Greg. I think an election will depend on the polls. And at the moment, there seems to be two sets of circumstances which effect the governments numbers.

Firstly, they seem to poll significantly higher when they are in serious election mode (i.e. when releasing attack ads on the lack of “leadership” in opposition, thus keeping it simple and making it about one thing), not to mention, when the public believes there is a good chance that there will be a snap election or parliament will dissolve. I believe that was the point when their numbers were the highest in key provinces like Ontario and Quebec.

Secondly, they seem to poll lower when the fever for an election has subsided and they are judged solely on policy and governing. (i.e. Kyoto, the war, uncertainty in a minority parliament, etc.)

I’m starting to think that maybe Harper should pull the string on parliament and call a snap election citing the senate as obstructionist. It’s better than waiting around for a bunch of lame duck opposition leaders (with the exception of Layton) to pull the plug. It may never happen. And why wait around forever for your enemies to fundraise and recover politically. It just doesn’t make sense.

So in other words, this vote in the fall won’t matter one bit because opposition whips will be counting heads to make sure parliament doesn’t disslove. And why wouldn’t they.

I love to watch the Liberals squirm over this. I love to watch them squirm over anything really, but this is just too delicious. Vote down the government without hope of winning or vote no confidence in their own bill. With any other party, I would bet they would stand by their principles, but this is the Liberal party, so they will probably vote with the government.

nbt… fixed election date legislation was passed…. next scheduled election is Autumn 2009 - so Harper can’t unilaterally pull the plug, it is entirely up to the opposition to defeat them for there to be an election before then.

so Harper can’t unilaterally pull the plug, it is entirely up to the opposition to defeat them

Yawn. So he introduces legislation that he wouldn’t mind campaigning on and that he knows the opposition has to vote against. Bingo, we have an election campaign. If he’s a fan of brinkmanship (and he seems to be), then he makes it a Bill that they won’t like at all, but could possibly live with. Fixed election dates in a minority Parliament are a work of fiction. In a majority situation they are not - bad legislation, but relevant.

Yawn. So he introduces legislation that he wouldn’t mind campaigning on and that he knows the opposition has to vote against. Bingo, we have an election campaign.

No you won’t. That was my point above, the government won’t fall unless Harper decides top pull the plug on it. Plain and simple.

And don’t put it past him to use this executive power rgardless of legislation put in place in a past session of parliament.