Thanks to Steve V in the comments for this link to a poll for the upcoming Quebec by-elections.
Outremont: NDP: 38% vs Liberals: 32%
Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot: BQ: 49% vs Conservatives: 32%
Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean: Conservatives: 43% vs BQ: 37%
This looks like a disaster scenario for Stephane Dion.

Comments (7)
Wake me up, I must be dreaming.
This is as close as you can get for a Conservative best case scenario. The CPC braintrust will look like geniuses for holding the Quebec byelections separate from the other byelections if this plays out according to those polls.
A resurgent NDP in Big City urban areas across the country and a resurgent CPC everywhere else. This puts the other 3 byelections in a totally different light. The CPC could retake the northern Saskatchewan riding. The NDP could win in Toronto Centre. The Liberals could cling onto Willowdale…I’ve stared dreaming again, I know.
More importantly, this will make both the Liberals and Bloc more agreeable to postponing another election.
Posted by PlaidShirt | September 14, 2007 5:42 PM
Posted on September 14, 2007 17:42
I’m seeing a Conservative Majority soon.
Posted by Allan | September 14, 2007 6:11 PM
Posted on September 14, 2007 18:11
I’m looking forward to watching Dion vote in favour of the throne speech. ;)
Posted by Joanne (TB) | September 14, 2007 6:49 PM
Posted on September 14, 2007 18:49
Greetings. I heard one commentator this morning indicate that the St. Hyacinthe is much closer than indicated in the poll. It is a Quebec thing where they tell polsters what they think they want to hear and then vote entirely differently. Just look at the recent provincial election. No polls were predicting the ADQ surge. I would say it is not over until the fat lady sings. CPC could pull off 2 wins. Cheers.
Posted by sandra | September 14, 2007 7:26 PM
Posted on September 14, 2007 19:26
I’m seeing a Conservative Majority soon.
Won’t make one bit of difference. The only reason they are winning in Roberval is because of graft. They have been sending cabinet ministers into the riding for weeks telling them about all the goodies they will get if they vote Conservative (and telling them they won’t get them if they don’t). That sounds like business as usual to me. In fact, if the Liberals were doing it, some might even call it corruption. Maybe I am just in a bad mood because I hate all of the parties in this country at the moment.
Posted by Greg | September 14, 2007 7:27 PM
Posted on September 14, 2007 19:27
Will Parliament be prorogued? According to parl.gc.ca, there is a full schedule for Monday, and even the Government House Leader - as late as yesterday - has an amendment tabled for one of the government bills.
Strange, eh?
Posted by Anon | September 14, 2007 8:10 PM
Posted on September 14, 2007 20:10
Well, I think Allan is dreaming and Sandra is really being too optimistic about Saskatchewan.
But Greg you are right about trouble for Dion - I say one of the polling number (Roberval I believe) where the Liberals were in 4th place behind the NDP.
Ouch.
I wonder who these folks will vote for when the details of the Conservative Party election spending shell game come out?
Come on Rhinos!
Posted by Mike | September 15, 2007 12:04 AM
Posted on September 15, 2007 00:04