I say disaster, you say debacle,
...Liberals are poised to lose the riding for only the second time in, oh, about 70 years. Should the NDP's Thomas Mulcair make oracles of pollsters, knives some Liberal rivals never fully sheathed will be inches from the leader's back on Tuesday.
So dire is Dion's evolving situation that his best hope of surviving long enough to get the hang of the job may be Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe. Of the three opposition leaders, Duceppe remains most likely to keep minority Conservatives from falling because of next month's throne speech.
disaster,
...Many in the party would see the loss of a traditional Liberal bastion as symbolic evidence that Mr. Dion cannot lead the party out of the wilderness in Quebec, many Liberals say, and therefore raise questions about whether he could lead them to victory in a general election.
...Some Liberal organizers and local officials, speaking on condition that they not be identified, raise darker prospects that a loss in Outremont could be "the beginning of the end" for Mr. Dion's leadership.
debacle,
...The UniMarketing poll showed the Liberals trailing badly in the two other Quebec races: Roberval-Lac-St-Jean and Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot.
"The rate things are going we'll soon have to put the Liberal Party on the list of political creatures threatened with extinction in Quebec," wrote La Presse columnist Vincent Marissal.
disaster,
...The degree of pressure on a leader also depends to a large extent on how closely the party's candidate in a by-election is identified with the leader.
This plays heavily in Outremont because Coulon was handpicked by Dion, who also blocked Justin Trudeau from the nomination, though some Liberals maintained Trudeau would have been the party's best hope in the riding, said Antonia Maioni, director of McGill University's Institute for the Study of Canada.
"Dion's claim was that he'd win back Quebec, and this is what potential Liberal voters are going to look at, and more so people in the party. If he fails to capture the riding, one of the safest Liberal seats in the province, it's not going to play well outside Quebec."
I bet Dion wishes he could call the whole thing off.
Comments (6)
The Liberals will not lose Outremont even to a well-know Liberal like Mulcair. All this media frenzy will turn on a dime Tuesday and declare Dion to be a demi-God.
The NDP does not have a ground game in Outremont. Unless the disgruntled Liberals are organizing against Coulon, Mulcair will fall short.
Posted by Anon | September 15, 2007 10:52 AM
Posted on September 15, 2007 10:52
The canary at the back of the coalmine is gasping for breath.
Now there’s two possible scenarios:
1) Dion hangs onto the leadership, battered weakened and suspect within his own party, or
2) the knives come out, which will entail another expensive leadership convention and corresponding fallout from choosing two leaders in between elections.
Harper will use either scenario to keep his foot on the throat of the flailing Liberal party.
It’s good to be back,
and remember, trust Chester,
Chester knows.
Posted by Chester | September 15, 2007 10:59 AM
Posted on September 15, 2007 10:59
Amm, Anon, to use a quote from a well known figure, “You don’t know what you speak about!”
Every report I’ve read, including an on-the-ground report from a Liblogger, and today’s report on CBC’s “The House” says that the NDP have far and away the best organization on the ground there. A local reporter in the riding told The House that he’s recieved three phone calls from the NDP, and two knocks on his door, with three people at his door on one occasion. They’re everywhere, hitting every door, calling every phone, and longtime Liberal supporters have openly declared that they’re going to give Mulciar a chance.
As for the Liberals, they’re almost non-existant says the reporter… no calls, no knocks on his door, NOTHING. A Liberal blogger reported that the campaign office is demoralized, volunteers are scarce, and they’ve put out an SOS to any supporters in Montreal and even Ottawa to come and help them out this weekend and on Monday… some are in desperation mode, while others are resigned to a loss.
I’m not calling for an NDP win YET, but unless the Libs pull a rabbit out of their hat, it may also be in the loss column on Monday.
Posted by Christian Conservative | September 15, 2007 11:36 AM
Posted on September 15, 2007 11:36
Greg, could you drop me an email and explain why you’ve cut off Chester?
Posted by Chester | September 15, 2007 11:48 AM
Posted on September 15, 2007 11:48
It would not surprise me if the Liberals were trying to lower expectations in order to look like heroes if they somehow manage to pull it out.
Posted by Greg | September 15, 2007 12:25 PM
Posted on September 15, 2007 12:25
It’s happening across Canada too… Liberal grassroots members who volunteered during elections are not happy with Dion’s lacklustre leadership and are not motivated to work for him as leader. Dion went into the leadership convention with only ~17% grassroots support, while Ignatieff had 29% and much more in Quebec than did Dion.
A terrible mistake was made in that brokered convention by electing Dion as Liberal leader, when ~83% of Liberal grassroots members initially preferred somebody else.
What went wrong at the convention? Was there a Stop Iggy campaign that backfired by electing hapless Dion?
Posted by Observer | September 16, 2007 1:16 AM
Posted on September 16, 2007 01:16