Ontario poll from Ipsos Reid,
Liberals: 40%
Progressive Conservatives: 37%
New Democrats: 16%
Greens: 6%
And I thought, man, those are sure different than Harris-Decima from the other day,
Liberals: 41%
Progressive Conservatives: 33%
New Democrats: 13%
Greens: 11%
These polls were taken within days of each other so how could they both be correct. You know that I have a long standing distrust of Decima polls and my own Green>10% discount the poll rule. If you look at this link here you can see that the Decima poll is an outlier. It seems that all the polls have the Liberal support being solid from 39-41. Ipsos-Reid and Angus-Reid seem to agree that the PCs are around 37% and the NDP around 17%. However, a firm not listed here is Strategic Counsel, whose results are more in line with Harris-Decima (40,34,16,10). Who to believe, who to believe?
Regardless of the firm, each firms numbers are pretty stable from one poll to the next as this campaign continues to be a snoozer. Maybe the debates tonight will shake things up but that being said will anybody actually be watching?
Comments (3)
I will be….but I’m not sure what Tory could do to lose my vote now after his great announcement on health care.
Posted by Matt | September 20, 2007 4:00 PM
Posted on September 20, 2007 16:00
Unfortunately, I think you may be seeing the difference between online and phone polls. Online Tories tend to be more likely to go to weird places like the freedom party, so I fear that the overall PC vote seems lower than it really is in the “surveys” by decima and Strategic Council.
Posted by Jason Cherniak | September 20, 2007 4:08 PM
Posted on September 20, 2007 16:08
” Maybe the debates tonight will shake things up but that being said will anybody actually be watching?”
not many…funny enough, many public schools have scheduled their “Meet the Teacher” night on the very same day as the debate.
Personally, I’m recording it, but many will not, and just go for the soundbyte provided tonight/tomorrow
Posted by tori | September 20, 2007 5:07 PM
Posted on September 20, 2007 17:07