Apolitical Staples

It wouldn’t surprise me if Dion makes them abstain and then say, while he can’t vote for the throne speech, the “Canadian People” don’t want an election.

The good thing about that is that the Harper government can put whatever they want in the thrown speech, and if Dion doesn’t vote against it, he will look completely useless both to his party and to the Canadian people. Either scenario, Dion won’t be the leader of the Federal Liberals for much longer. You can’t pretend to be the leader if you can’t lead.

Like an investor selling off his stock he is sure will decline, so too Duceppe has made a calculated decision that his party would be better off with an election sooner rather than later. He’s selling his stock. As noted in this article:

http://tinyurl.com/2ht5ct

Duceppe has publicly come out with some impossible conditions for his party’s support of the Throne Speech. The NDP is buoyed and has no need to support the government. Duceppe has therefore placed the burden of propping up the government on Dion. The Liberal party will not watch the party be further weakened by falling into the untenable scenario of simultaineously propping up and condemning the current government. Further, the forces within the Lib party to put Dion out of his misery have already been unleashed and are, at this point, unstoppable.

The election cometh.

Thank you and have a great weekend. The always trustworthy,

Chester

An update:

Greg, is rightfully suspicious at Duceppe’s true motives and also rightfully cynical regarding the bona fides on any non-confidence vote.

Chester is equally cynical. However, the underlying factors support the parties wanting to pull the plug now.

Let’s assume I’m incorrect though. It’s a dangerous game to feign non-confidence as two can play at that game. Lets assume that all three opposition parties vote unanimously against the Throne, but reduce the required votes by an amount slightly less than the CPC vote.

First, either one party would have to openly mock the process by having many members of their party absent, or there would have to be coordination amongst the opposition which would involve a game of political chicken.

And what if, heaven forbid, there were several absences on the CPC side (family responsibilities, illnesses etc). Would the other parties, who would also have absences, be in a position to castigate the CPC? Could they even be in a position to “complain” that the CPC assisted in the result that they purport to want? Note the likely scenario would be that all of the other opposition parties would unanimously vote against the throne. It would be difficult for them to say publicly: “hey, we didn’t really want this, you should have ensured our actions were defeated.”

Consider also that this complaining wouldn’t change the fact that a non-confidence vote will have succeeded and an election was under way.

Trust Chester,

Chester knows.

And yes, the above comments are from the infamous Chester. While we are having problems with my spam system blocking him he is emailing his comments directly. Beacause inquiring minds what to know what Chester knows.

I’m not convinced that this is all a sideshow.

Remember, all the opposition parties are in a competition as to who is Stephen Harper’s worst nightmare. A survival past this throne speech will mean that Harper will have survived two years in a tight Parliament. Which of the opposition parties wants to be held responsible for that?

Do abstentions give any of the parties a pass? I’m not sure about that. Either way, you’re responsible for keeping a Harper government in power, and the party or parties responsible will have to wear that.

Harper set up this confidence showdown on purpose, which means that he’s will to go if necessary. Both the Bloc and the Libs might be able to mitigate losses in a quick election that could get worse as time goes on. Jack has a by-election win in Quebec to help him in a fall election.

For all this talk of nobody wanting an election, I still think there has to be one party willing to at least support Harper tacitly, even if it means an abstention or one hundred. And, right now, I don’t think any opposition party is in a position to do that.

Do any of them really want an election? Not really? But the alternative might be worse. The alternative is helping Harper to govern, which none of these parties can afford to do anymore politically.

On top of all that, Harper might make the throne speech too hard to support for any of them. He’ll say he wants a mandate to govern for the next little while, which is why he has drafted a throne speech. If the opposition is against that, then so be it. He’ll blame them for bringing him down, and get a new mandate from the people. He’ll win, and the opposition parties will be more divided than ever.

Duceppe wants to split/fracture the Liberals on Afghanistan in the hope that what francophone Liberal voters remain go Bloc, not CPC. If Dion wants/needs to avoid a Fall election the Liberals will have to suport the Throne speech. His leadership cannot afford a split like during the Afghanistan extension vote. To preserve his leadership therefore the Liberals will have to be whipped to vote no. The Government will fall (unless enough Liberals join Khan and Comuzzi and cross the floor) and we’re into an Election. And then the Puffin Party will go extinct in French-speaking Quebec, and probably will decline severely in Montreal as well as the NDP makes in-roads on the Island. Dion himself may loose his seat. The Fall election will be highlighted by the CPC-Bloc struggle for dominance in Quebec. I like Harper’s chances.

I don’t like Harper’s chances, and that’s not just because I don’t like his government either. While I think the NDP would hold Outremont in a fall election, there has hardly been enough time for Layton and Mulcair to build a significant organization. More to the point, the Tories are still marginal in Montreal, the Blocquistes will be fighting for their political lives, and even if Liberal seats fall to the NDP, it won’t help the CPC one bit of Liberal + NDP seats increase following an election.

All that aside, the CPC will lose seats in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador, not many of course, but just enough that whatever gains might accrue in Quebec will be cancelled out. Meanwhile, the CPC’s ascendent position on the Prairies implies that they can only go down at this point (particularly in Sask…), and the party’s support in BC has been steadily shrinking since 2004.

Ontario, of course, is the wild card, but there seems little sign of any great change, one way or the other. So what we’re left with is the status quo, though a Liberal minority is not at all out of the question, perhaps even a formal coalition with the NDP. Who can say?

All in all, a third minority in a row might help reduce pointless grandstanding and hostility among the parties. Ideally, anyway, it would have that effect. But while Dion goes into any election with, at this point, only the lowest expectations, much is expected of Harper, and failure to deliver on at least a slim majority would not be taken well.

Don’t agree? I’ve observed that many CPC supporters online seem to believe a Harper majority is inevitable, that the Liberals will implode to a degree never before seen, and a new era will be ushered in, as the CPC takes its rightful place as the natural governing party.

They’ll be in for a rude awakening.

As for Dion, well, even John Turner held on for another six years after the disaster of the 1984 election. To do that badly, the Liberals would have to lose 56 seats. At worst, they could lose as many as 15, perhaps 20. But all to the CPC…?

I don’t think a majority is inevitable, I’ve long thought that a second straight, but slightly stronger minority is probably more likely. But with the weakness of Dion, and the decline of the Bloc, I think there’s a tremendous opportunity to gain a majority.

Stephane Dion is not John Turner, and its 2007, not 1984. The Liberal Party is very divided and has been engaged in internal warfare for quite some time.

The results of the recent Quebec byelections did nothing to stem the division in the party, or heal old wounds. Stephane Dion isn’t the man to lead the Liberals into the next election, or any future election. He should never have won in the first place. He’s the Joe Clark of the Liberal Party (ironically, Joe Clark is a member now). The innocent third choice, who didn’t offend anyone, but who really has no chance to form government, and I don’t see a 1979 upset coming either.

I think you’re glossing over Dion’s obvious weaknesses, and making too many assumptions about traditional Liberal ridings remaining Liberal. If the byelection in Outremont is a microcosm of the election campaign that lies ahead, from an organizational standpoint, then the Liberals are in a world of trouble.

The only chance the Liberals have a forming a minority is a monster fear and smear campaign, that causes the Dippers to run to the Liberals at the last minute. I don’t see fear and smear working in 2007, and with the confidence the NDP has following Tom Mulclair’s victory, I don’t see the NDP wanting to shift their vote to prevent a majority. I think potential of being the official opposition in the next parliament is a much loftier goal for the NDP than simply preventing a majority for the Tories.

Attention Political Staples Readers:

Josh is wrong.

Thank you and have a pleasant evening.

Attention Political Staples Readers:

Chester is too kind.

Thank you and have some sort of evening.

With the end of vote-splitting, the only way to a majority is to be strong in Quebec. The CPC is getting stronger and stronger in Quebec, the Liberals and Bloc getting weaker and weaker. Dion was supposed to deliver Quebec back to the Liberals but, like Paul Martin, who if you remember was very popular in Quebec (unlike Chretien), he has failed.

The only party that has a chance of being a national government is the CPC. Their path to a majority is blocked only by Duceppe, not Dion. Cannon’s “Bloc is useless in Ottawa” remarks is the first salvo of the 2007 election campaign. This election if it happens will be a Harper vs Duceppe battle. Only Duceppe can prevent a CPC majority. Dion and the Puffin Party are bystanders.