When it comes to the latest poll on the electoral reform referendum I would have to say you could describe it either way. According to Strategic Counsel 54% of decided voters will be voting in favour of MMP rather than the current FPTP electoral system. The sounds much higher than I would have guessed and this is the reason why.
...With less than three weeks to go, 47 per cent of those polled said they knew nothing at all about the proposal. Only 12 per cent said they knew a lot.
Half said they would vote against the proposed change, or remain undecided.
It should be pointed out that voter turnout for the last two elections was 56.8% and 58.3% respectively. I expect that voter turnout will be even lower this time around. So 47% undecided and ~45% of people not voting then you could guess that MMP is going to get around 52% support. Very impressive but still short of the 60% required. But that being said, pro-MMP people will be more motivated to go to the polls so that number could go up a few percentage points. It is clear that the MMP side is doing the correct thing by focusing on getting the word out about the referendum and by education voters on it because it seems the more people know about it the more likely they are to support it.
My gut tells me it will still come up short though. And this snippet points to that.
...Those awareness levels are on par with what was happening a month before B.C.'s referendum failed in May, 2005. Throughout the B.C. campaign, awareness levels changed little and support for the new system remained relatively constant among decided voters. When it came to casting their ballot, people who were undecided voted against the move, the Strategic Counsel report said.
Comments (3)
To quote the prophet of baseball: “Ya gotta believe”
Posted by Greg | September 24, 2007 6:00 PM
Posted on September 24, 2007 18:00
Well Mistah Staples, I’m no fan of MMP, but I think it’s an improvement, and I’ll end up supporting it. My instinct, like yours, says, “Close, but no cigar”. It’s a bit frustrating, in that people are often discontented with the system, but are now unaware of an option for them to support or discard. I’m very, very curious what the final tally will be.
Posted by Jason Bo Green | September 24, 2007 6:27 PM
Posted on September 24, 2007 18:27
There should be three answer boxes on the ballot:
I believe “Huh?” would win a majority.
Posted by Dr. Strangelove | September 24, 2007 9:54 PM
Posted on September 24, 2007 21:54