As I've stated previously I don't think there will be a fall election because it is not in the Liberals best interests to bring down the government. I am beginning to think that it is not in the Conservatives best interests either. It is my belief that a majority government is a long-shot, not just for the Conservatives but for any party with the current splits in party support. I have no doubt that the Conservatives would win a fall election and even though they stand to lose seats in Maritimes gains in Quebec would more that make up for that. The result, I am predicting, would be a strengthened minority government.
That being said, isn't the minority government they have now effectively stronger than one they would get in the fall. If Gilles Duceppe is truly bowing out after the next election and the Liberals sure to dump Stephane Dion should they lose an election Stephen Harper is up against two lame duck leaders. I will grant you that a new mandate would have a free pass until new opposing leaders were found these leaders very well may in a stronger position than the current ones - especially in the case of the Liberals and since they are the only other party able to form an election they are the party that matters.
Since the Conservatives are in a very strong position now it may be in their best interests to govern until the fall of 2009.
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As good as a majority?
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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on October 2, 2007 10:08 PM.
The previous post in this blog was This is worse.
The next post in this blog is Truer words and all that.
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Comments (7)
A superficial post, unusual for you.
Which seats in the Maritimes do you see the CPC losing in a general election, and to whom?
Posted by orval | October 3, 2007 1:07 AM
Posted on October 3, 2007 01:07
But is it in our best interests? I don’t give a rat’s ass about their best interests.
By the way, they won’t lose more than one or two seats at most in the Maritimes, if that.
Posted by Alan | October 3, 2007 10:18 AM
Posted on October 3, 2007 10:18
Funny, I didn’t think it was any more or less superficial than all my posts.
Posted by Greg Staples | October 3, 2007 11:30 AM
Posted on October 3, 2007 11:30
That being said, isn’t the minority government they have now effectively stronger than one they would get in the fall.
Brilliant assessment, Greg! And one I hope the PMO will take into account before getting all bogged down with strategy sessions on how to bring down their own cause.
As you mention, with the political lanscape the way it is now (notwithstanding the senate), Harper’s minority government have the means and [political] capital to make hallmark changes in legislation. At least up until the opposition get sick of passing conservative friendly legislation that is.
Posted by nbt | October 3, 2007 1:38 PM
Posted on October 3, 2007 13:38
Means, capital, but the will?
Posted by Alan | October 3, 2007 2:40 PM
Posted on October 3, 2007 14:40
We need to see what happens in the Ontario provincial election first. If it’s a bloodbath for the PC’s, then I agree with you. If the Liberals are reduced to a minority government, then I think you’re wrong.
If the Liberal back bench abstains, then an equal number of Conservative MPs should also abstain. The Opposition can not make a partial vote of non-confidence and expect no consequences. Either they abstain or they vote non-confidence. You can’t go half and half unless Harper plays along. I don’t think it’s in his interests to play along any more. Really this government hasn’t had the confidence of the House since the Kyoto vote and parliamentary speaking should have fallen a long time ago. Up till now, it’s been in everybody’s interest to continue this charade. If the CPC has a realistic shot for 10 more seats in Ontario, then they should go for it. 20 more in Quebec and 5 more in BC.
The only reason to keep this going would be if there was the reasonable expectation they could pass a budget or some other major piece of legislation. BUT they can’t. Even though the Liberals are weakened, they still think they are in charge of the legislative agenda. With a massive majority in the Senate, technically they are. This is why I believe Harper, may not want an election, but he needs one. He needs a mandate so that he can push legislation through the Senate.
Posted by PlaidShirt | October 3, 2007 2:44 PM
Posted on October 3, 2007 14:44
Decima poll. Parties still tied. After all the Dion-is-imploding coverage! That Liberal brand’s resilience is unbelievable.
Posted by Anon | October 3, 2007 3:23 PM
Posted on October 3, 2007 15:23