Apolitical Staples

cant see the referendum results on here but they are on the toronto star website. what they have there in terms of numbers if you count riding by riding is overwhelmingly yes… the percentage and number of ridings are totally at odds, they are the ones being put out by the cbc… wtf?…

The Greens take 8%! Greg, you might want to revise your 10% invalid poll rule. :-)

http://www.canada.com/topics/news/politics/story.html?id=ea764103-c867-46df-9658-fb4c9714a2dc

Tories lunge toward majority turf, poll says Norma Greenaway , CanWest News Service Published: Friday, October 12, 2007 OTTAWA - The federal Conservatives have surged to 40 per cent in the popularity sweepstakes, opening a 12-point lead over the Liberals and moving within sight of majority government, a new national poll says.

The poll, conducted by Ipsos-Reid exclusively for CanWest News Service and Global National, also says that almost seven in 10 respondents believe Canada is “moving in the right track these days,” and that almost half (49 per cent) identified with the sentiment that “Stephen Harper has done a good job and deserves re-election” as prime minister.

“These are the best numbers the Tories have had in years,” Darrell Bricker, president of the polling firm, said Friday. At 40 per cent, the Conservatives were up four points from the last Ipsos-Reid poll in August, and were right on the “magic number” needed to think about forming a majority government, he said.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper listens to a question during a news conference on Parliament Hill in Ottawa October 12, 2007. REUTERS/Chris Wattie

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Printer friendly Font:**The new poll lands amid rampant election speculation in Ottawa as Harper prepares for the reopening of Parliament on Tuesday and a throne speech setting out his governing priorities.

The speech is a confidence matter, meaning the minority Conservative government could fall if the three opposition parties unite to vote against it.

The poll found Liberal support had dropped to 28 per cent, down four points from the August survey. The NDP dropped one point to 16 per cent, the Bloc Quebecois held at eight per cent, and the Green party was down one point to seven per cent.

Bricker said the poll results suggest an election is less likely because the positive picture they paint for the Conservatives will scare off the opposition, especially the Liberals, from bringing down the government.

“The potential is that if an election was held tomorrow, he (Harper) could form a majority,” Bricker said in an interview. In contrast, Liberal Leader Stephane Dion, who has been dogged by party infighting, is “a bit on the ropes and headed in the wrong direction.”

Bricker also said, however, that Harper is in a “tough spot” if he wants to take advantage of his popularity and to engineer his own defeat by putting something into the throne speech that is so unpalatable to all three opposition parties that they would bring the government down. Harper would risk a public backlash over what would be seen as a “cynical” manoeuvre.

The last time the Conservatives hit a support level of 40 per cent was immediately after its popular budget last spring. However, the post-budget bounce evaporated within two weeks.

Bricker said the latest survey’s Quebec results show how the Liberals have fallen in Dion’s home province. At only 18 per cent support, the party is only four points ahead of the NDP, and trails far behind the Bloc at 33 per cent and the Conservatives at 27 per cent. The Green party polled at seven per cent.

The picture was slightly brighter for the Liberals in Ontario, where they trail the Conservatives by only three points, 40 per cent to 37. The NDP was well back at 14 per cent, and the Greens had eight per cent.

The nationwide poll, conducted Tuesday through Thursday, involved telephone interviews with 1,000 adults. The results in a sample this size are considered accurate to within 3.1 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

Elsewhere in Canada, the Conservatives held a strong lead in British Columbia, with 40 per cent support, compared to 30 per cent for the NDP and 23 per cent for the Liberals.

In Alberta, they scored 63 per cent, well ahead of the runner-up Liberal party at six per cent. The Tories also strongly outpolled their competition in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Atlantic Canada was a bright spot for the Liberals. Their support stood at 45 per cent, compared with 37 per cent for the Conservatives, 15 per cent for the NDP, and four per cent for the Green party.

The margin of error in the regional results ranged from a low of 5.5 per cent in Ontario to 12.3 per cent in Atlantic Canada.

© CanWest News Service 2007