who actually believes these polling numbers from Strategic Counsel.
Conservatives: 32%
Liberals: 32%
Greens: 13%
New Democrats: 12%
Bloc Quebecois: 10% (I'm guessing)
I bet you that you'd have a very difficult time finding Liberal insiders who believe this poll, let alone New Democrats ones. I can't wait for the latest Decima poll to show the Liberals ahead. And how you can you tell whether the parties internal numbers matched the published ones, watch the parties behaviour. If the Liberals were truly tied, and that far ahead in Ontario, they would be pushing to have an election.
Comments (5)
The mystery to me is why Nik Nanos isn’t being asked to do more party support polls?
Posted by Greg | November 13, 2007 9:41 AM
Posted on November 13, 2007 09:41
I get these e-mail alerts from SES, containing the results of their latest surveys. Today’s was on who’d be best PM (Harper=37%, Layton=17%, Dion=13% - no, that aint a typo - Duceppe=5% and May=3%). But in the same e-mail, the following appeared:
Later this week we will release polling on what Canadians like and dislike about Stephen Harper and Stephane Dion. We will also release our national ballot numbers. You will be surprised. [emphasis added]
That Nik Nanos. What a tease.
Posted by Jason Hickman | November 13, 2007 9:54 AM
Posted on November 13, 2007 09:54
Jason and Greg,
“you will be surprised” is a great tease. Damn that Nik! :-)
Would you be surprised if: 1) The Liberals were ahead of the Tories? 2) The 2 parties were tied? 3) The Tories have a big lead over the Libs? 4) The Tories have a small lead over the Libs? 5) The NDP is out in front?
My answers - Yes, Yes, Yes, No, I’m having a Heart Attack!
Not sure what the surprise could translate to, but I want to see those numbers!
Posted by Rick | November 13, 2007 2:02 PM
Posted on November 13, 2007 14:02
Another point to be made here:
CROP, Leger and Ipsos all had Quebec at 31/31 for the Bloc and Tories, and CROP and Leger had 1000 person sample sizes for Quebec alone. SC has it 42/22? yesy, there may have been some effect from the Mulroney announcement on Friday, but no way did it have that much affect.
Therefore, these SC results cannot be trusted, even more so than the Ipsos national number, which I believe are too high.
And Green at 13%??? Yea, I believe that one. The Staples rule is in effect!
Posted by Rick | November 13, 2007 2:07 PM
Posted on November 13, 2007 14:07
Wayyyyyy off. I guess this is their 1/20 when they are completely wrong. As you said, ask the Liberals, based on these numbers, would they like to go to the polls tomorrow?
Staples Rule is also in effect.
Posted by Shaun | November 13, 2007 4:38 PM
Posted on November 13, 2007 16:38