This fall Stephane Dion claimed that Canadians did not want an election and, as such, the Liberals abstained from voting against the government. This week he claimed that Canadians would probably want an election in early 2008. With the latest from Harris-Decima, which the Canadian Press' Rob Russo characterized as firming support for the Conservatives and softening support for the Liberals (on CBC Politics last night) one wonders if Dion's magic eight-ball is telling him the Canadians don't want an election, again?
Conservatives: 36%
Liberals: 28%
New Democrats: 16%
Greens: 11%
Bloc Quebecois: 8% (I am guessing)
And the Liberals just two points up in Ontario. Remember folks, this is Harris-Decima, the firm that has consistently provides the lowest number for the Conservatives.
Comments (4)
It isn’t a firming of support it is a fossilizing of support. The polls haven’t moved since 2005.
Posted by Greg | December 5, 2007 9:00 AM
Posted on December 5, 2007 09:00
Looks to me like the PM has succeeded in one thing: he has made the support floor for the Conservatives much higher than it was.
With the current seat breakdown in Parliament, he has as strong a minority as anyone can — any party has the balance of power.
Can he push his guys over the top for a majority? Unknown. (I’m hopeful.)
As for Dion’s point about whether it’s time for an election — history says yes.
Posted by Ben (The Tiger) | December 5, 2007 9:49 AM
Posted on December 5, 2007 09:49
Can he push his guys over the top for a majority? Unknown. (I’m hopeful.)
It all depends on the economy in Ontario. If it continues to tank, then he has no hope. If it recovers, he has a chance.
Posted by Greg | December 5, 2007 10:59 AM
Posted on December 5, 2007 10:59
The polls haven’t moved since 2005, except in Quebec. Quebec-only polling (CROP, Leger) shows CPC and BQ even, and LPC way down. Dion can do nothing to halt LPC decline to near oblivion in Quebec. Everything now depends on Bloc. If Bloc can’t make it above 30-32% (same level as CPC) then half or more of Bloc seats wil go CPC.
Dion thinks he can bring down Governmnt whenever he wants. But nobody ever asks BQ if they go along with this. By voting against SFTT and mini-budget (while Grits abstained) Bloc made its point. I see nothing in it for the Bloc to bring down Harper now to help Dion. I suspect that BQ will support Gov’t in any confidence votes.
CPC support is Quebec is climbing but is still lacking a strong organization on the ground. Harper and CPC needs more time to build his Quebec team. This is why I really believe there will not be an election until October 2009 if Harper can help it. And there is nothing Dion can do about it.
Harper is very lucky as Dion cannot re-build LPC support in Quebec. The longer things go as there are now, the better it is for Harper in Quebec.
The only polls that matter are the ones from Quebec.
Posted by orval | December 6, 2007 6:57 PM
Posted on December 6, 2007 18:57