Political Staples

What in h*ll is going on…..???

We won’t know until October 14th, of course, but pay close attention to the Green Party vote in this poll. In other polls, they’ve been flirting with historic highs of 12-15%, and here they are at 6% — it would still be their best performance in a federal election, but that’s half of their potential vote gone.

If, as seems likely, that vote bled to the Liberals, that would give them a boost. As for the rest of that boost, I think some Conservative support has slipped to the Liberals following the respective performance of both leaders in the debates. Red Tories may finally be coming to grips with the fact that they have more of a home (albeit an uncomfortable one) with the Liberal Party than with the Conservatives.

It does look as if the Greens are going home to the Liberals. I will wait til tomorrow though to see if the NDP is headed in the same direction.

Nano’s shows the green support at 6% wheres Decima shows it at 13%. The difference between the two is that Nano’s does not list the parties, rather lets the respondent list their preference. Decmia rotates a listing. When people here ‘Green’ they likely say ‘I’ll choose them’ because its some what of a fad to ‘prefer’ the greens these days. Perhaps nano’s is more accurate because people are stating their true intentions based on what they know?

Here’s what I find interesting:

Best PM: Harper: 34% Dion: 18%

Vote: CPC: 34% LPC: 31%

Essentially everyone voting Tory believes Harper is the best PM. Or there are people voting for Dion or Layton but believe Harper is the best PM.

Most people don’t realize that even with a repeat of the 2006 results, it’s Prime Minister Dion. Dion is not resigning on Oct. 15th and Harper can’t get a Throne Speech passed. That’s been true since the beginning of the election. It’s a majority or near majority for the CPC or it’s off to the opposition benches.

If the last 6 polls hold, Dion will lead a Kyoto coalition by Easter break.