There are several things that I am going to be watching for as the election returns come in this evening. The list is a work in progress and I will be adding to it as the day goes along. Please feel free to let me know if I've missed anything. Some of the items are obvious but I am going to write them out anyway
- who wins the most seats, who is the leader of the opposition
- what percentage of the vote does the winner get
- do the Liberals set a new low in popular support
- can the NDP poll above 20%
- can the Greens poll above 10%
- can the Greens with a seat
- do the Liberals and NDP (and maybe Greens) win enough seats whereby their combined total is more than the Conservatives
- do the Conservatives lose seats in Quebec
- do the Conservatives win enough seats elsewhere to make the loses (or lack of gains) in Quebec enough to have lost them a majority
- will Justin Trudeau win
- how many Cabinet Ministers do the Conservatives lose, I peg the over/under at 3
- do any of Diane Finley, Gary Lunn, Michael Fortier and Peter MacKay lose
- related - does Elizabeth May win
- were the polls correct
- are the Conservatives wiped out in Newfoundland
- do the Conservatives win a seat in PEI
- do the Conservatives win all seats in Alberta again
- who wins the popular vote in Ontario
- who wins the most seats in Ontario
- does a party leader quit tonight
- will Gerard Kennedy lose
- will Ralph Goodale lose
Update: And we already have some good additions
- will Garth Turner lose
- will the Conservatives lose popular support in Alberta
- will the NDP gain another seat in Quebec
- will any party have elected representatives in all ten provinces
- will the Conservatives will a seat in the Toronto, Montreal or Vancouver
Uodate II: A couple more good ones
- will we see a new record low set for the winning party (i.e. less than 36.27%)
- will Michael Ignatieff lose
- will the Liberals be shut out of British Columbia
Comments (8)
Will Garth Turner lose? Will the Conservatives lose popular support in Alberta? Will the NDP gain another seat in Quebec? Will any party have elected representatives in all ten provinces? Will the Conservatives win seats in Canada’s major, non-Albertan cities?
Posted by Robert McClelland | October 14, 2008 9:31 AM
Posted on October 14, 2008 09:31
A couple of other numbers to remember:
Posted by James Bow | October 14, 2008 10:38 AM
Posted on October 14, 2008 10:38
Does Ignatieff lose in Etobicoke-Lakeshore? That’s a long shot, I know. However, if it happens it means two things, the Conservatives won a majority and Bob Rae has a clear shot at the Liberal leadership.
Also, are the Liberals shut out of BC? That’s not such a long shot. That will have echos of 1984. Liberals with 2 seats west of the Ontario/Manitoba border.
Posted by PlaidShirt | October 14, 2008 10:40 AM
Posted on October 14, 2008 10:40
What do you make of the weird uptick for the Tories in Nanos’s Sunday results, and the corresponsing dip for the Bloc and Greens, when everybody else stayed pretty much the same? Just margin or error stuff, or is something going on in Quebec and BC?
Posted by Occam's Carbuncle | October 14, 2008 10:45 AM
Posted on October 14, 2008 10:45
OC, I have a weird feeling that things are not going to turn out quite like we think. I wonder the same thing as you, did Nanos pick up early signs of some switching towards the Conservatives or was it within the error. We’ll find out soon enough.
Posted by Political Staples
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October 14, 2008 11:17 AM
Posted on October 14, 2008 11:17
Will the voters by way of the election results demonstrate that Canada is in fact a collection of special interests and regions - as opposed to a nation and part of the international community?
Posted by Ann | October 14, 2008 11:23 AM
Posted on October 14, 2008 11:23
WRT “Will CPC be wiped out in Newfoundland?”.I would suggest rephrasing that…Does Danny have the electorate by the nose, or are they independent thinkers?
Posted by bluetech | October 14, 2008 12:34 PM
Posted on October 14, 2008 12:34
Will the campaign Bloc numbers result in election votes. Will the Bloc voters deny Stephen seats in Quebec. Will May be shunned in Central Nova and Peter vindicated.
Posted by Cate Ridley | October 14, 2008 12:50 PM
Posted on October 14, 2008 12:50