Political Staples

The Macleans election review article inspired me to re-read Paul Wells' excellent Right Side Up. In the book he makes a reference to the fact that the Conservative vote in 2004 (29.6%) was less than the combined vote of the Alliance and Progressive Conservatives in 2000 (37.7%), though it did win the Conservatives more seats. Let's look at this a bit closer.

1993: Reform, 18.7% + Progressive Conservatives, 16.0% = 34.7%
1997: Reform, 19.35% + Progressive Conservatives, 18.84% = 38.2%
2000: Alliance, 25.49% + Progressive Conservatives, 12.19% = 37.7%
2004: Conservatives, 29.6%
2006: Conservatives, 36.3%
2008: Conservatives, 37.6%

A couple of things jump out at me. First is that the Harper led Conservatives have successfully brought two out of Tom Flanagan's Three Sisters together. The rounded-up 38% that the Conservatives won in 2008 looks to be a ceiling with only the western populists and eastern Tories in the fold. If the Conservatives want to grow they need the third sister, you know the cute, french, nationalist one.

The other thing that jumps out is that 2004 is now an outlier. All of the other years have a support level of 34% or higher. This probable represents a new floor for the Conservatives - though we all know that this floor has a way of caving in spectacularly.