Further to my post here I decided to sell how well the Conservatives have integrated the rural/populist Ontario vote with the traditional Ontario Red Tory vote.
1993: Reform, 20.1% + Progressive Conservatives, 17.6% = 37.7%
1997: Reform, 19.1% + Progressive Conservatives, 18.8% = 37.9%
2000: Alliance, 23.6% + Progressive Conservatives, 14.4% = 38.0%
2004: Conservatives, 29.6%
2006: Conservatives, 35.1%
2008: Conservatives, 39.2%
The same pattern as the national one is apparent here. The Reform/Alliance + Progressive Conservative vote was very steady around 38%. It took the Conservatives a couple of elections but they managed fully integrate both wings in 2008. In fact they did slightly better than that in the last election but that probably has more to do with a suppressed Liberal vote than a broadening of the tent. Though Jason Kenney's immigrant outreach program could explain some of that as well. It will take another election of two to know for sure.
Bottom line is that the Conservatives should be able to count on 38% support in Ontario barring unforeseen circumstances - such as, I don't know, two plus years of significant deficits.
Comments (3)
In Ontario, the Conservatives’ next task will be to win seats south of the Mason-Dixon line (Steeles Avenue) into the city of Toronto.
I will admit that the Conservatives did well with rural and suburban voters. The party will need to work on urban voters if it wants to earn more seats in Ontario.
The Liberals will likely have a stronger leader next time. They’ll be pushing in the opposite direction.
Posted by Skinny Dipper | October 23, 2008 5:25 PM
Posted on October 23, 2008 17:25
HMMM,,seems to me its the cities that dont have any representation..Now who looks like idiots,with no say on how to run the country??Toronto..yes,,Montreal..yes,,Vancouver..yes.So who needs them.
Posted by bert | October 24, 2008 7:17 AM
Posted on October 24, 2008 07:17
I am not so sure, Greg. I think the clear evidence that Liberals stayed home this time, skewed the numbers. It will be interesting to see what happens next time. If the pattern is repeated, then I think you are on to something.
Posted by Greg | October 24, 2008 7:47 AM
Posted on October 24, 2008 07:47