of past support levels for political parties let's look at the Liberals.
1993: 41.2%*
1997: 38.5%
2000: 40.9%
2004: 36.7%
2006: 30.2%
2008: 26.2%
I will start with the easy observation - Jean Chretian was regarded a political genius for winning three straight majorities and Paul Martin a fool for ending them. Look at 1997 (38.5%) verus 2004 (36.7%). I have said this many times before, Chretien's electoral brilliance is a myth, he won because a split right. His 1997 result would have been a minority or worse considering the combined Reform and PC vote was 37.9%. A united Conservative party could have beat Jean Chretien in 1997, they may not have, but it would have been very close.
And I will leave that as a tease as we dig deeper into the numbers in the next couple of days.
* I have corrected the incorrect number I originally posted. I add put the combined total of the Liberals, NDP and Greens, Which is where I am going with this post.
Comments (3)
Your number for 1993 is way off; it should be somewhere around 41%.
Posted by The Invisible Hand | October 27, 2008 2:25 AM
Posted on October 27, 2008 02:25
The one problem with your analysis of 1997 is that you assume that, had their been a single “Conservative” party then, all the PC and Reform folks would have voted for it.
Yet history bears out that since the merger, the CPC has yet to achieve the same electoral success as the two separate parties added together. Even against a scandal ridden Martin government or a hapless Dion.
The Reform and PC were as different at the Liberals and the NDP. Few in the old PC party hung around, save Weepy Pete and a few Quebec Conservatives. Some joined the Liberals and others - most I dare say - seem to have stopped voting.
I think you should really take that into consideration…it probably wouldn’t have been that close.
Posted by Mike | October 27, 2008 9:18 AM
Posted on October 27, 2008 09:18
I agree with that. My main point was that it would not have been a Liberal majority. And to your other point the Conservatives have completed the task of fully merging the Reform/Alliance and PC support.
Posted by Political Staples
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October 27, 2008 10:03 AM
Posted on October 27, 2008 10:03